The latest US-Iranian agreement, if one can dignify it with such a word, has accomplished what decades of open conflict could not: it has rendered Lebanon a ghost state, a geographical expression rather than a nation. UK intelligence now warns that the ceasefire is fragile, a polite way of saying it is a ticking bomb wrapped in diplomatic velvet. As ever, the Great Powers carve up the map while the locals are left to sweep up the debris of their ambitions.
This is not a peace. This is a pause between disasters, a temporary suspension of hostilities that allows both Washington and Tehran to claim victory while Lebanon bleeds. The tragedy is that this outcome was entirely predictable.
The deal, rumoured to involve mutual concessions on nuclear enrichment and regional influence, necessarily sacrifices the weaker party. Lebanon, with its sectarian fractures and Hezbollah’s iron grip, has always been the bargaining chip. The UK’s intelligence assessment is correct: the ceasefire is fragile because it is built on a foundation of sand.
Hezbollah will not disarm; Iran will not cut off its supply lines; and Israel will not tolerate a heavily armed militia on its border. The result is a stalemate that favours no one but the gunslingers. The real question is not whether the ceasefire holds, but whether Lebanon can survive this latest game of dominoes.
The answer, I suspect, is no. History teaches us that when empires negotiate, the small are devoured. Lebanon is being eaten alive, and the world is politely looking away.
