The threat of an Alberta independence vote has resurfaced, with former Bank of England governor Mark Carney stepping into the fray to declare the province ‘essential’ to Canada’s economic future. For working families in Calgary and Edmonton, the political brinkmanship feels like a distant game while they grapple with the cost of living – but the stakes are brutally real.
Carney, now a senior economic advisor to the federal government, made his remarks at a Calgary Chamber of Commerce luncheon on Wednesday. “Alberta is not just important, it is essential to the fabric of this nation,” he said, drawing applause from a room of business leaders but scepticism from union organisers. “Without Alberta’s energy, agriculture and innovation, Canada would be a poorer, weaker country.”
His intervention comes as a new poll shows 42% of Albertans would support a referendum on leaving Canada, up from 35% last year. The trigger? A growing sense that Ottawa is out of touch with the province’s economic struggles. While national headlines focus on inflation and interest rates, in Alberta the conversation is about pipelines, carbon taxes and jobs.
“The price of diesel has gone up 30% in two years,” says Tom Bradley, a heavy-haul trucker from Fort McMurray. “My wages haven’t budged. We’re told to diversify, but the only diversification I see is in the price of bread and rent. If leaving gets us a government that actually cares about our livelihoods, then count me in.”
But not everyone is convinced. Union leaders warn that separation would hit the most vulnerable hardest. “Our members in the oil sands have seen enough boom and bust,” says Lisa Hanson, president of the United Food and Commercial Workers union local in Edmonton. “A divorce from Canada would expose workers to volatile global markets without the social safety nets we fought for. It’s a dangerous gamble.”
Carney’s speech carefully walked a tightrope: acknowledging frustrations while urging unity. “The answer is not walking away, but fixing what is broken,” he said. He proposed a revamped fiscal stabilisation fund for resource-dependent provinces and a streamlined regulatory process for major projects. “We need to ensure that the wealth generated in Alberta benefits Albertan families, not just corporate shareholders.”
The reaction from separatist groups was swift. “Carney is a central banker parachuted in to calm the natives,” said Doug Main, spokesperson for the Freedom Alberta Party. “He talks about fixing things but offers no timeline, no guarantee. Albertans are tired of being a cash cow for Quebec and the Maritimes.”
The debate is deeply intertwined with class and regional inequality. In the working-class neighbourhood of Forest Lawn in Calgary, the mood is pragmatic. “I don’t care about flags or patriotism,” says Maria Santos, a cleaner and mother of three. “I care that my rent is £1,800 a month and I can’t afford to take my kids to the dentist. If leaving helps, fine. If not, also fine. Just do something.”
Economists warn that an Alberta exit would be catastrophic for the province’s labour market. A report from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives found that 1 in 5 jobs in Alberta are linked to federal transfers or programmes. The energy sector itself is heavily integrated with the rest of the country through pipelines, refineries and supply chains.
“The ‘Alberta advantage’ is real, but it applies to capital, not labour,” says Dr. James Morrison, an economist at the University of Calgary. “Working people would lose access to federal employment insurance, pensions and job training. That is not a win for the working class.”
As the independence vote looms, the silence from Ottawa is deafening. Carney’s speech was a start, but for those on the frontlines of the cost of living crisis, words are cheap. The price of bread is not. And that is the real economy that matters.
