Yerevan is on edge. Snap elections are looming, and the Kremlin is turning the screws. This is not a drill. Armenia’s leadership, tilting towards the West, is feeling the heat from Moscow. Hard. The question is: how long can they hold?
The trigger? Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s increasingly vocal pivot away from Russia’s orbit. He has refused to join Moscow’s war in Ukraine. He has hosted EU peacekeepers. He has even talked about leaving the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, the Kremlin’s military bloc. For Putin, that is heresy.
Now the pressure campaign is in full swing. Russian state media is painting Pashinyan as a Western stooge. The energy weapon is being used: reports of gas supply disruptions. And the Karabakh card is being played again. Russian peacekeepers, still stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh, are being accused of stalling the return of displaced Armenians. The message is clear: you need us.
The election date is yet to be fixed, but it will be soon. Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party is ahead in the polls, but not by a landslide. The opposition, backed by oligarchs with ties to Moscow, is hammering a line of betrayal and incompetence. They whisper that Pashinyan has lost the Russian security guarantee. They point to the economic fallout: tourism down, remittances from Russia shrinking, and inflation creeping up.
Downing Street is watching closely. The UK has already deepened its diplomatic engagement with Yerevan, signing a strategic dialogue agreement last year. But let’s be honest: this is not a level playing field. Russia has the geography, the history, and the willingness to use brute economic force. Britain cannot match that. Not yet.
The real game is in Brussels. The European Union is Armenia’s only lifeline. The EU has been offering trade deals and visa liberalisation. But the process is slow. Too slow for a country under siege. The fear in Whitehall is that if the EU does not deliver concrete results before the election, Pashinyan will be forced into a humiliating climbdown. Or worse, he will lose.
And if he loses? The next government will be a Moscow-friendly regime. They will cancel the EU deal. They will bring back the Russian military bases. They will join the Eurasian Economic Union with renewed vigour. For the West, that would be a strategic disaster: a second front opening in the Caucasus, with Russia strengthening its grip on the energy corridor to Iran.
So the clock is ticking. The UK ambassador in Yerevan has been busy. Quiet conversations with civil society groups. A nudge to the business community. A signal that London stands with Armenia’s sovereignty. But the language of power is not just words. It is money. It is energy. It is security guarantees.
The coming weeks will be decisive. Pashinyan needs a clean win. He needs to show his people that the West can deliver. If he cannot, this election will be a turning point. Not just for Armenia, but for the entire post-Soviet space. And the Kremlin knows it.
