YEREVAN. The Armenian government is heading into a snap parliamentary election on Sunday with its survival at stake. A leaked document obtained by this newsroom reveals that Moscow has been quietly but aggressively pressuring Yerevan to abandon its drift towards the West. Sources close to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirm that the Kremlin has threatened economic retaliation if the election results do not favour pro-Russian factions.
Pashinyan came to power in 2018 on a wave of anti-corruption fervour and promised to break Armenia’s dependency on Russia. But his tenure has been marked by a disastrous war with Azerbaijan in 2020, which saw Armenia lose territory and influence. Since then, Moscow has tightened its grip. The leaked memo, dated three weeks ago, outlines a playbook: destabilise the economy, fund opposition parties and wage a disinformation campaign against Pashinyan.
A source in the Armenian security services, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told this journalist: “The Russians are not subtle. They want Pashinyan gone. They view him as a traitor who is selling out to the West. They are using every tool they have.”
The election pits Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party against a coalition of pro-Russian opposition groups led by former President Robert Kocharyan. Polls show a tight race. But the pressure is already showing. The Armenian dram has lost 15 per cent of its value against the dollar in the past month. Gas prices have spiked. And a wave of fake news stories accusing Pashinyan of being a Western puppet have flooded social media.
At a rally in Yerevan’s Republic Square on Friday, Pashinyan warned of foreign interference. “They are trying to buy this election. They are trying to frighten us. But the people of Armenia will not be enslaved again,” he shouted to a crowd of thousands. Behind him, a banner read: “No to Russian occupation.”
But the reality is that Armenia remains deeply dependent on Moscow. Russia maintains a military base in Gyumri and controls Armenia’s energy sector. The country is also a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation and the Eurasian Economic Union. Breaking free would be economically crippling.
A diplomatic cable from the US embassy in Yerevan, which this newsroom has seen, states bluntly: “Armenia is caught between a rock and a hard place. The EU is offering only vague promises. Russia is offering threats. The Armenian people will choose survival.”
The election is a watershed moment for the South Caucasus. If Pashinyan wins, Armenia could accelerate its integration with the West, potentially opening the door to EU membership talks. If he loses, the country will likely slide back into Moscow’s orbit, with implications for the frozen conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and the wider balance of power in the region.
International observers are already reporting irregularities. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has noted that state resources have been used to support pro-Russian candidates. A senior European diplomat, who asked not to be named, said: “This is not a free and fair election. It is a test of whether a small country can defy a regional hegemon.”
The stakes could not be higher. As one Armenian voter put it: “We are choosing between our past and our future. And I am afraid the past is winning.”
