YEREVAN, Armenia — Voters went to the polls on Sunday in a snap parliamentary election that will determine whether the country continues its drift towards the West or returns to Moscow's orbit. The contest pits Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's pro-reform Civil Contract party against a coalition of old-guard forces that favour closer ties with Russia.
Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018 after a velvet revolution promising democratic reform, has pursued a strategy of diversifying Armenia's foreign policy, angering Moscow. This approach has included deepening relations with the European Union, seeking military hardware from India and France, and ratifying the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, which obliges Armenia to arrest President Vladimir Putin if he sets foot on its soil.
Russia, Armenia's traditional security guarantor, has responded with a campaign of mounting pressure. In recent weeks, Russian state media have accused Pashinyan of undermining collective security arrangements and of “anti-Russian” sentiment. Moscow has controlled key leverage points including energy imports and the presence of a military base near the Turkish border. The Russian gas giant Gazprom, which supplies almost all of Armenia's gas, has raised prices by 15 per cent this year. Meanwhile, Russian border guards remain stationed along Armenia's frontier with Iran and Turkey, though their presence is now contested by Yerevan.
The Kremlin has also exploited the unresolved conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijan recaptured the breakaway region in a military offensive last September. Russian peacekeepers, deployed under a 2020 ceasefire agreement, were criticised by Armenian officials for failing to prevent the Azerbaijani advance. Yet Moscow has used the outcome to blame Pashinyan's alleged Western alignment for the loss of the enclave.
“The election is about survival of our sovereignty,” Pashinyan told supporters at a final rally on Friday. “We have shown that Armenia can be independent. We do not need a master.”
His main challenger is Robert Kocharyan, a former president who led the country from 1998 to 2008 and is seen as a Kremlin ally. Kocharyan's campaign has centred on restoring security and restoring close relations with Russia. He has criticised Pashinyan for “sacrificing” Karabakh and for endangering Armenia's economy with strained ties to Moscow. Opinion polls suggest a tight race, with some showing Pashinyan ahead and others placing the two parties neck and neck.
The election is taking place under a new constitution that reduces the number of seats in parliament and lowers the threshold for representation. Observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe are monitoring the vote for irregularities. Past elections in Armenia have been marred by fraud, though Pashinyan's government has touted reform as a cornerstone of its agenda.
International analysts view the election as a test of whether a small nation can resist great-power coercion. For Moscow, a Pashinyan victory would represent another setback in its struggling effort to keep former Soviet states in its orbit, following Ukraine’s turn westwards. For the West, it would demonstrate the attraction of democratic reform even under intense pressure.
The final outcome may take days to determine as votes are tallied. A run-off between the top two parties is required if no single party meets the threshold of 54 seats. Turnout was reported to be high by midday, with long queues at polling stations in the capital.
Sienna West, reporting for The Times.
