Yerevan, 20 June. The fate of Armenia’s pro-western pivot hangs in the balance today. Polls opened at 8am local time for a snap parliamentary election called by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. His gamble? To secure a fresh mandate for his reform agenda and his increasingly rocky relationship with Moscow.
But the Kremlin is not sitting idly. Leaks from the Armenian security services suggest Russian-linked actors have been bankrolling opposition parties. Hard cash, delivered in plastic bags. The aim: to hobble Pashinyan’s ‘Velvet Revolution’ legacy. Sources inside the prime minister’s office tell me they have ‘specific intelligence’ of voter intimidation in pro-Russian regions. The interior ministry is downplaying it. They would, wouldn’t they?
Meanwhile, the UK has waded in. Boris Johnson’s government issued a statement last night: ‘We stand with the Armenian people in their democratic choice.’ Translation? We want this government to survive. Whitehall insiders confirm FCDO has been ‘closely monitoring’ the situation. Quiet signals have been sent via the British embassy in Yerevan. No boots on the ground, but soft power is very much in play.
Why does this matter? Armenia is a tiny country wedged between Turkey, Iran, and Russia. It hosts a Russian military base. It is part of the Kremlin’s Collective Security Treaty Organisation. But Pashinyan has been drifting west. He wants closer ties with the EU. He signed a new partnership with the US last year. Moscow is furious. The Kremlin sees this vote as a binary choice: East or West.
The polls give Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party 27% of the vote. His main rival, former president Robert Kocharyan, is at 24%. That’s within the margin of error. A hung parliament is a real possibility. And that would be a disaster for Pashinyan. Coalition talks would drag on for weeks. The Kremlin would exploit every crack.
Backbench MPs in Westminster are restless. The Foreign Affairs Committee has demanded an urgent briefing. One Tory MP told me: ‘We cannot let another democracy be swallowed by Putin.’ But the reality is, the UK’s leverage is limited. Trade with Armenia is negligible. The only real card is diplomatic cover.
At the polling station in central Yerevan, the mood is tense. Voters queue in the autumn chill. An old woman tells me she voted for Pashinyan. ‘I want a normal life. Not Soviet nostalgia.’ But others are sceptical. A shopkeeper: ‘These politicians are all the same. They say nice things. Then they steal.’
The result is expected by midnight. If Pashinyan wins, expect a flurry of congratulatory calls from London. If he loses, expect a flurry of nervous phone calls. The Kremlin will be watching. And so will we.
