Yerevan, Armenia – Voters in Armenia went to the polls on Sunday in a snap parliamentary election that was widely seen as a referendum on the country’s future orientation between Russia and the West. The vote came amid heightened tensions with Moscow and a deteriorating security situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Opinion polls ahead of the election showed a tight race between the ruling Civil Contract party of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and a coalition of opposition parties led by former President Robert Kocharyan. Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018 on a wave of pro-democracy protests, has faced growing criticism over his handling of the 2020 war with Azerbaijan, which resulted in a humiliating defeat and the loss of large swathes of territory.
The political landscape has been further complicated by Russia’s role as a security guarantor in the region. Moscow maintains a military base in Armenia and is the dominant power in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance that includes several former Soviet states. In recent months, Russian officials have openly expressed displeasure with Pashinyan’s government, accusing it of pursuing an anti-Russian agenda and seeking closer ties with the West, particularly the European Union and NATO.
Pashinyan’s rivals have sought to capitalise on this discontent, positioning themselves as pro-Russian alternatives who can restore stability and maintain strong ties with Moscow. Kocharyan, who served as president from 1998 to 2008, has been a particularly vocal critic of Pashinyan’s foreign policy, arguing that it has alienated Armenia’s most important ally and left the country isolated.
The election has been marked by allegations of interference from Moscow. On the eve of the vote, Russian state media aired a documentary that portrayed Pashinyan as a destabilising force and suggested that his government was responsible for the country’s economic woes. The Armenian government condemned the broadcast as an attempt to influence the election outcome.
International observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) reported that the election was generally well-administered but noted concerns about the use of administrative resources and the lack of a level playing field. They also highlighted the highly polarised environment, which has raised fears of post-election unrest.
The outcome of the vote will have significant implications for Armenia’s geopolitical alignment. A victory for Pashinyan would likely mean a continuation of his efforts to diversify Armenia’s foreign relations, including deeper cooperation with the European Union and the United States. However, it could also lead to further strain in relations with Russia, which has already taken steps to reduce its economic and military support for the country.
In contrast, a win for Kocharyan’s coalition could signal a sharp turn back towards Moscow, with potential consequences for Armenia’s domestic politics and its stated commitment to democratic reforms. Critics have warned that Kocharyan’s return to power could lead to a crackdown on dissent and a rollback of the freedoms gained since 2018.
As the votes are counted, both sides have accused each other of planning to rig the results. The Armenian Central Election Commission has promised to ensure a transparent process, but trust in the electoral system remains low. The coming days will be critical for the stability of the country and its place on the chessboard of Eurasian power politics.
