Westminster’s foreign policy set is buzzing. Armenia’s democratic gamble is paying off, and the Kremlin is furious. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party has secured a comfortable majority in snap elections, defying Russian attempts to destabilise the country. The UK was quick to offer congratulations, with Foreign Secretary David Lammy praising the ‘resilience of Armenian democracy’. This is a clear signal: London is deepening its ties with Yerevan, and Moscow is losing its grip.
The election result is a personal triumph for Pashinyan. He called the snap poll after months of Russian-backed protests, accusing Moscow of fomenting unrest. The strategy worked. Voters turned out in force, handing his party 54% of the vote. The opposition, backed by oligarchs with close Kremlin ties, was routed. One senior diplomat told me: ‘The Russians overplayed their hand. They thought they could bully Armenia back into line. Instead, they’ve pushed it further into the Western orbit.’
The numbers are stark. Turnout was 63%, high by regional standards. Pashinyan’s party won 71 out of 107 seats. The largest opposition bloc, the Armenia Alliance, managed only 21%. Pro-Russian parties won just 7% combined. This is not a close-run thing. This is a decisive shift.
Downing Street is moving fast. Lammy’s statement was carefully worded: ‘The UK stands with Armenia’s democratic choice. We will deepen our partnership on trade, security, and human rights.’ Translation: we are here to stay. Expect a flurry of visits. Trade delegations. Defence attaches. Armenia is now a key piece on the board, a democratic enclave in a region dominated by autocrats.
But the risks are real. Russia has options. Economic leverage through energy dependence. Military pressure via its base in Gyumri. And there’s always Nagorno-Karabakh, a frozen conflict that could thaw rapidly. The Kremlin will use every tool at its disposal to make life difficult for Pashinyan. One MI6 source described the situation as ‘a high-wire act with no net’.
Westminster’s calculation is simple: invest now before it’s too late. The UK is competing with France, which is also courting Armenia. The EU is sending a civilian mission to monitor the border with Azerbaijan. The US is providing development aid. The window for influence is open, but it won’t stay open forever.
Back in the Lobby, there’s a sense of excitement mixed with caution. ‘This is the best chance we’ve had in a decade to pull a country out of Russia’s sphere,’ one Tory backbencher told me. ‘But if we get it wrong, we’ll be blamed for its collapse.’ The spectre of Afghanistan looms large. No one wants a repeat of that debacle.
Pashinyan knows he is walking a tightrope. He needs Western investment to wean Armenia off Russian gas. He needs security guarantees against a resurgent Azerbaijan. And he needs to manage his own hardliners who want faster integration with NATO. One slip, and the whole project could unravel.
For now, the champagne is on ice in Yerevan. But the morning after will bring the hangover. The Kremlin has a long memory. And in this game of thrones, loyalty is a liability.
