The news from Colombia is brutally simple. Another ceasefire broken. Another wave of violence in the Cauca Valley. But for the British consumer, the real tremor arrives on the high street, in the price of a flat white or the empty shelves at the local supermarket. A nation’s civil strife is now a line item on a corporate spreadsheet.
Colombia’s presidential election, scheduled for May, has become a referendum on the fragile peace process. The incumbent Iván Duque, a conservative who has struggled to implement the 2016 accord with the FARC, faces a stiff challenge from leftist Gustavo Petro. The outcome will not only decide the fate of millions of Colombians but also the stability of trade routes that supply the UK with everything from avocados to gold.
The UK imported goods worth £1.2 billion from Colombia in 2020. Coffee alone accounts for a significant slice of that. But the real story is the human cost behind each shipment. In the conflict-ridden departments of Nariño and Putumayo, coca farmers are once again caught between armed groups. The European demand for cocaine funds the violence, but it is the legitimate trade that suffers. When a FARC dissident group blows up a pipeline, the oil company suspends operations. When a truck driver is kidnapped, the supply chain seizes up.
For the British consumer, this translates into rising prices. But more profoundly, it represents a moral entanglement. Our coffee habit is subsidised by a conflict we prefer not to see. The election offers a stark choice: a continuation of the flawed peace process under Duque, or a radical shift under Petro, who promises to renegotiate the deal in favour of rural communities. Either way, the violence is unlikely to end soon.
Already, the UK government has issued travel warnings for parts of Colombia. But the real warning is for British businesses that rely on Colombian imports. The instability is not a temporary blip; it is a structural feature of an economy still emerging from decades of war. The next government, whether Duque or Petro, will inherit a bankrupt treasury and a pandemic-ravaged population. Trade deals with the UK, post-Brexit, are a lifeline. But they also tie our fortunes to Colombia’s turmoil.
In the cafes of London, the conversation is about oat milk and Brexit. In the fields of Colombia, it is about survival. The two are connected by a thin, fragile thread. That thread is now fraying. As the world watches the election, we should remember that the cost of our comfort is paid in the currency of other people’s suffering.
