The Australian government has ordered a parliamentary inquiry into the Aukus submarine agreement, casting doubt on the timeline and viability of the multi-billion dollar project. The inquiry, announced by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, will scrutinise the cost, industrial capacity, and strategic necessity of the deal. This development comes as British shipbuilders, led by BAE Systems, confirm they are prepared to commence construction of the next-generation SSN-Aukus submarines by 2030, pending parliamentary approval.
The inquiry reflects growing unease in Canberra over the projected A$368 billion cost of the submarine program, which analysts describe as a generational strain on defence budgets. The Aukus pact, signed in 2021, involves the US, UK, and Australia sharing nuclear propulsion technology for conventionally armed submarines. Australia originally planned to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the US, but shifted to co-developing a new design with the UK in 2023, a change that has left industry timelines in flux.
British shipbuilders are now on the clock. BAE Systems, which already constructs submarines for the Royal Navy, has committed to an initial investment of £200 million to expand its Barrow-in-Furness facility. A company spokesperson told the BBC, 'We stand ready to deliver. UK engineering is world-class and we can begin steel cutting within months of a final investment decision.' However, the inquiry has injected uncertainty: if Australia withdraws or delays, the British production schedule for its own submarines would also be disrupted, as both nations plan to build identical vessels.
From a scientific standpoint, the technical challenge is immense. The SSN-Aukus design requires a compact nuclear reactor that can operate for 30 years without refuelling, a feat of materials science and thermal management. The UK’s Rolls-Royce is developing a new PWR3 reactor for these boats, but testing and integration are still years away. The inquiry will likely probe whether Australia has the skilled workforce to maintain nuclear-powered vessels, given its current lack of nuclear propulsion expertise.
Environmental groups have opposed the deal on the grounds of nuclear proliferation and carbon emissions from manufacturing. The Green Party of Australia has called for a 'full sustainability audit,' arguing that the submarines’ lifecycle carbon footprint is incompatible with the country’s net zero targets. The steel alone for each submarine requires approximately 10,000 tonnes of input, generating an estimated 20,000 tonnes of CO2 during production. This is a fraction of global emissions, but symbolically potent given Australia’s climate vulnerabilities.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical clock is ticking. China has expanded its navy to over 370 ships, including six nuclear submarines, and is operating in the South Pacific with increasing frequency. The Aukus deal is explicitly designed to counter this projection, but opponents argue that the submarines will not be operational until the 2040s, too late to influence near term deterrence.
The inquiry reports must be submitted by 31 May 2025. For British shipbuilders, this is a moment of calm urgency. They have the capacity, the design, and the political will, but an Australian pivot could leave them with idle dry docks and a strategic gap in the Indo Pacific. The world will watch to see if the alliance holds or if the physics of shipbuilding will outrun the politics of procurement.
