The mouse plagues sweeping through eastern Australia are not merely a rural nuisance but a symptom of a planet in distress. As Dr. Helena Vance, Science and Climate Correspondent, I have spent years documenting the subtle and not-so-subtle ways our climate is transforming ecosystems. The current infestation in New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria is a textbook case of how a warming world exacerbates biological disruptions.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology shows that the region has experienced a steady increase in mean temperatures of 1.4°C since 1910, with a marked acceleration in the past two decades. More critically, the rainfall patterns have become erratic, swinging from severe drought to intense deluges. The mouse population, a resilient species that breeds rapidly under favourable conditions, has capitalised on these shifts. Their population cycles, historically suppressed by cold winters and dry spells, now explode following wet, mild seasons.
Consider this: The 2020-21 summer saw record-breaking rains across much of the continent, breaking a multi-year drought. This led to abundant cereal crops, a bounty for mice. Then, a warm and wet autumn followed, allowing the mice to breed continuously through winter, typically a period of dormancy. By spring 2021, the population had surged to plague levels, causing hundreds of millions of dollars in crop damage and contaminating stored grain.
The link to climate change is undeniable. A study led by Dr. Peter Banks from the University of Sydney found that mouse plagues in Australia have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1980s, correlating with rising temperatures and rainfall variability. The mice are a canary in the coal mine, but they are far from alone. From locust swarms in East Africa to bark beetle outbreaks in North American forests, climate change is rewriting the rules of pest ecology.
What lessons can UK farmers draw from this? The UK is not immune. Climate models project hotter, drier summers and wetter winters for the British Isles. While the UK’s current mouse populations are manageable, a similar scenario could unfold if conditions shift. The potential for increased rodent activity exists if winters become mild and food sources abundant. Preventative measures today could forestall a crisis tomorrow.
First, monitor and adapt storage: Grain stores should be sealed and monitored with heat sensors to detect rodent activity early. Second, consider biological control methods like encouraging natural predators such as owls and kestrels. Third, integrate pest management with crop rotations to reduce food availability. The Australian experience underscores that waiting for a plague to peak is too late; proactive risk assessment is essential.
There is also a broader technological dimension. Precision agriculture tools, including remote sensing and AI-driven pest forecasting, can provide early warnings. In Australia, farmers are using drones to spot crop damage and satellite data to predict population explosions. The UK’s agricultural sector, already a leader in digital farming, could deploy these tools to stay ahead of the curve.
But the most critical lesson is that these plagues are a signal of systemic failure. We cannot treat the symptoms without addressing the cause. The same greenhouse gases driving the increase in global mean temperature also create the conditions for these biological cascades. Every fraction of a degree of warming avoided translates into fewer ecological shocks.
As a reporter, I find it exhausting to state the obvious: the climate is changing, and our ecosystems are responding. The mouse plagues in Australia are a stark reminder that nature does not negotiate. The only sensible course is to decarbonise our economies with urgency and adapt our agricultural practices to a world that has already warmed. The UK can learn from Australia’s struggle, but only if it takes the threat seriously and acts now.
