The fragile US-brokered ceasefire barely lasted the night. Now, smoke rises over Beirut's southern suburb. Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold, is under Israeli bombardment again. This is not a spat. This is a collapse.
Hours after Washington claimed to have secured a pause, the deal unravelled. The mechanics are murky. But the result is clear: IAF jets, F-16s most likely, conducted at least four strikes on what intelligence sources describe as 'high-value targets'. The booms were heard across the city.
Washington's reaction? A carefully worded statement expressing 'deep concern'. But the game has changed. The US broker, Amos Hochstein, left the region on Thursday. The vacuum was immediate.
Inside the Lobby, the chatter is frantic. One Whitehall source: 'This was supposed to be the template. Proof the US could manage the escalation. Now it's a failure.' The question now is whether Netanyahu ever intended the truce to hold. The domestic pressure on him is immense. His coalition partners demand a tougher line. The generals are wary of a two-front war. But the political logic points to escalation.
Hezbollah, for its part, has already fired rockets into northern Israel. Not a massive barrage. A signal. They are not broken. The IDF confirms an anti-tank missile struck a position near the border. No casualties reported.
So where does this leave the region? Skidding towards a wider conflict. The Iranian factor looms large. Tehran's proxies are watching. The Houthis have already launched drones towards Eilat. This is a network, not a series of isolated spats.
For Number 10, this is a nightmare. The Foreign Office has been scrambling to maintain contact with all sides. The UK's line has been to back the US talking. But with no deal left, that talking sounds hollow.
Let's look at the data. Last night's Gallup poll showed that public support for Israel in Britain has dropped 12 points since October 7. That will focus minds in Westminster. But backbench pressure on Starmer to adopt a harder line on Israeli operations is growing. The Labour Friends of Israel will be lobbying hard. But the Muslim vote is a problem. The party is split.
The truth is, no one in Whitehall believes this is the last round. The bombing paused. It did not end. And the politics, both in Jerusalem and Washington, is driving events. Biden is weak. Netanyahu is emboldened. The rest of us are left watching the bombs fall.
The key dynamic to watch over the next 48 hours: Will Hezbollah respond with a major attack? If they do, expect the Israeli cabinet to authorize a ground operation into southern Lebanon. That is the threshold. And we are close to crossing it.
