Lebanon finds itself in an all-too-familiar position: holding the bag as the great powers waltz around a deal that was never really about its survival. The much-hyped US-Iran agreement, hailed by diplomats as a pathway to de-escalation, has delivered precisely nothing for a country already haemorrhaging from a financial crisis and political paralysis. The market's verdict is unequivocal.
The Lebanese pound continues its slide on the black market, and capital flight is picking up pace. Investors are voting with their feet, and they see the same tired script: a proxy war fought on Lebanese soil, with American and Iranian fingerprints all over the wreckage. The deal’s failure to address Hezbollah's role or the structural imbalances in Lebanon's economy means the status quo persists.
Monetary policy is impotent when the central bank's reserves are depleted and political will is fractured along sectarian lines. Fiscal responsibility is a distant memory. Until the cost of inaction exceeds the cost of reform, Beirut will remain a hostage to foreign interests and domestic kleptocrats.
The bottom line is clear: when great powers play chess, Lebanon is the pawn. And pawns rarely survive the endgame.
