The news from Germany is a grim reminder that the threat from the far right is not confined to the fringes. British intelligence sources have expressed disquiet over a recent German domestic intelligence report revealing 60,000 individuals with extremist right-wing views. That is a number large enough to fill a small stadium and troubling enough to rattle the calm of Whitehall.
To put this in perspective: 60,000 is more than the active strength of the British Army. It is a pool of radicalisation that cannot be dismissed as a handful of malcontents. These are people who believe the state is illegitimate, that immigrants are the enemy, and that violence is a legitimate tool. They are not all members of a single party; they span the spectrum from the National Democratic Party to the more violent Reichsbürger movement and the so-called ‘Identitarians’.
The alarm in London is understandable. For decades, the British intelligence community has focused on Islamist terrorism and, more recently, Russian espionage. But the far right is a home-grown threat that has been metastasising. The rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has given a veneer of respectability to ideas that would have been unthinkable in the post-war era. And now the intelligence estimates suggest that a significant minority of AfD supporters are not just disgruntled voters but active extremists.
Markets abhor uncertainty, and political instability is a certainty killer. If Germany, the anchor of the European economy, begins to see the sort of political violence that has plagued other countries, the fallout will be felt in gilt yields and currency markets. The euro has already been under pressure; a sustained rise in far-right violence would be a new headwind for the single currency.
But the immediate concern is for British security. The Channel is no barrier to ideology. British far-right groups have long looked to their German counterparts for inspiration. The English Defence League, Britain First, and others have maintained contacts with German extremists. The risk of cross-pollination is real. And as the British government prepares to introduce new legislation to tackle extremism, the German numbers will serve as a stark warning.
There is also the matter of capital flight. If Germany begins to look unstable, investors will look for safer havens. The UK, with its own political troubles, might not benefit. But a fragmented Europe is not in anyone’s interest, least of all the City of London’s.
The root cause is clear: economic stagnation and a failure of integration. Germany’s industrial model is under threat from energy prices and Chinese competition. The far right offers scapegoats, not solutions. But until the mainstream parties address the economic grievances that fuel extremism, the number of extremists will only grow.
For now, British intelligence will be watching closely. The German report is a red flag not just for Berlin but for the entire continent. The bottom line: 60,000 extremists is a market-moving number, and not in a good way.
