Moscow woke to a grimy dawn this morning. Black rain fell on the capital. The cause? A Ukrainian drone strike on a fuel depot in the Moscow region. The attack, confirmed by Ukrainian military sources, sent a plume of burning oil into the sky. The toxic cloud drifted over city suburbs. Residents reported a foul smell and oily residue on cars and windows. Social media footage showed a towering column of smoke, visible from central Moscow.
This is not a symbolic strike. It is a logistical one. Fuel depots are the lifeblood of an army. Hitting one inside Russia, less than 100 miles from the Kremlin, sends a message. But more importantly, it disrupts supply chains. Western defence analysts are tracking a pattern. Ukraine is systematically targeting Russian fuel infrastructure. The aim: starve the front-line units of the petrol and diesel they need to move.
Whitehall sources are watching this closely. The UK Ministry of Defence has a team mapping these strikes. The official line: 'We are aware of reports. We do not comment on operational matters.' Off the record, there is unease. This ratchets up the war. The Kremlin will have to respond. But how? Retaliation on Kyiv is expected. But the risk is a wider conflagration. A direct clash between Nato and Russia is the nightmare scenario. Each escalation makes it more likely.
Inside the Westminster bubble, the debate is shifting. The familiar arguments about 'escalation management' are being dusted off. Some Labour backbenchers are uneasy. They fear the UK is being drawn into a proxy war without parliamentary approval. The government line remains: we support Ukraine's right to self-defence, including within Russia. But No. 10 is keenly aware of the polls. The public is still broadly supportive of Ukraine. But endurance has limits. A prolonged war, with rising energy prices and no end in sight, tests that support.
The black rain is a metaphor. It stains everything. For Putin, it is a failure of air defence. For Ukraine, it is a tactical victory. For the West, it is a diplomatic headache. The game is getting dirtier. And in Whitehall, the whispers are getting louder. No one wants to say it outright but the unthinkable is being thought: what if this war goes nuclear? The chatter is not public. It is in the corridors, over pints, in off-the-record briefings. Defence sources are testing the waters. They need to know how far the public can be pushed.
For now, the story is black rain. But the real story is the shift in the battlefield calculus. Ukraine is no longer just defending. It is taking the fight to the enemy. That changes everything. The question is: how far will they go? And how far will we let them?
