The City woke this morning to the smell of panic. Reports from Moscow confirm that residents are complaining of ‘black rain’ after a Ukrainian drone strike hit an oil refinery in the Russian capital. For London’s traders, this is not a humanitarian crisis. It is a supply chain headache.
The attack, which targeted a facility just 50 miles from the Kremlin, has sent ripples through global energy markets. Brent crude spiked 3% in early Asian trading, and British wholesale gas prices followed suit. The irony is not lost: a strike designed to cripple Russia’s war machine is now threatening to inflate your heating bill.
Let us examine the mechanics. The refinery in question produces diesel and jet fuel, critical for both military logistics and civilian transport. A disruption here squeezes global supply, and the UK, ever reliant on imports, feels the pinch. The government’s fabled net-zero transition? It offers little insulation when the taps are turned off in Moscow.
But the real story is inflation. The Bank of England has been wrestling with a stubborn 4% core CPI, and a supply shock of this nature could reintroduce that old monster: energy-driven price hikes. The Monetary Policy Committee will be watching the spot prices with hawkish eyes. Do not be surprised if the next decision on interest rates leans towards caution. Markets are now pricing in a reduced probability of a cut in August. The ‘black rain’ in Moscow is raining on the parade of British homebuyers.
Gilt yields have already begun to twitch. The 10-year yield rose 5 basis points this morning as investors fled to safety dollar-denominated assets. Capital flight from the eurozone into sterling? Do not count on it. The UK’s fiscal credibility is already on thin ice. A nervous market is not a forgiving one.
There is also the question of retaliation. If this strike escalates, we could see a repeat of the 2022 energy crisis. The government’s strategic petroleum reserves are not infinite, and the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom is long gone. The Autumn Statement just got a lot more complicated.
For the average Briton, the ‘black rain’ is a metaphor. It falls on our economy, our inflation, our interest rates. The City does not weep for Moscow. We count barrels, spreads, and basis points. And the numbers do not look pretty.
Let us be clear: this is not a call for panic. Markets correct. Supply chains adapt. But the days of cheap energy are a distant memory. Every disruption, every drone strike, every refinery fire, it all accumulates into a chronic condition: structural inflation. The MPC can tighten all it wants. But you cannot sterilise a supply shock with a rate hike. You can only watch the black rain fall.
