The Middle East stands on a precipice. The alignment between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, two leaders who thrive on disruption, is driving the region towards a state of permanent crisis. Amid this volatility, the United Kingdom must seize the opportunity to reassert itself as a credible diplomatic actor.
Trump’s second term promises a continuation of his maximalist approach, with the Abraham Accords as a template for normalisation without addressing Palestinian statehood. Netanyahu, emboldened by his most right-wing coalition in Israeli history, has accelerated settlement expansion and annexed parts of the West Bank de facto. The result is a powder keg where the two-state solution becomes a fiction and violence escalates.
This is not merely a moral failure but a strategic one. The absence of a viable peace process destabilises Jordan, Egypt, and the Gulf states. Iran exploits the vacuum, using Palestinian grievance to fuel its proxy networks. Hezbollah and the Houthis gain legitimacy. The risk of a wider conflagration is real.
Into this void, the UK must step. British diplomacy has a unique advantage: it retains credibility with all parties. The UK is a key NATO ally, a permanent Security Council member, and a major aid donor to the Palestinian Authority. Unlike the US, it is not seen as a partisan actor. This position must be leveraged for a bold diplomatic reset.
The first step is to articulate a clear, principled position: immediate cessation of settlement expansion, support for a negotiated two-state solution based on 1967 borders with land swaps, and recognition of Palestinian statehood as an incentive for negotiation. Such a stance would be a departure from the current policy of ambiguity.
Second, the UK should convene an international conference under the auspices of the United Nations. The goal would be a comprehensive peace framework, including security guarantees for Israel, a timeline for Palestinian statehood, and a regional security architecture that integrates Israel and normalises relations with Saudi Arabia and others.
Third, the UK must increase development assistance to the Palestinian territories and invest in institutions that can govern effectively. A collapsed Palestinian Authority only serves extremists.
Timing is critical. The next 12 months will shape the decade. If the UK hesitates, the permacrisis becomes permanent. If it leads, it can halt the drift towards disaster and demonstrate that liberal internationalism still has purpose.
The risks are high. Trump and Netanyahu will resist constraints. But the cost of inaction is higher: a broken Middle East that exports conflict and instability for generations. The UK has the credibility, the capability, and the moral imperative to act. It must do so now.
