An urgent warning has emerged from London this morning: former MI6 chief Sir Jeremy Bowen has privately informed the White House that President Trump must end the simmering conflict with Iran, or face a catastrophic escalation. Sources close to the discussions confirm that British diplomats are now urgently pushing for secret backchannel talks to de-escalate the crisis.
Bowen, who led the intelligence service during the Iraq War, is said to have delivered a stark assessment to national security adviser Robert O'Brien: the United States is losing the shadow war, and the current trajectory leads to direct military confrontation. The warning comes as Washington's pressure campaign intensifies, with new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports and allegations of Tehran's involvement in attacks on Saudi Aramco.
Documents obtained by this newspaper reveal that the Foreign Office has drafted a confidential memo urging the establishment of a direct communication line between Tehran and Washington, bypassing the usual diplomatic channels. The memo warns that without such a backchannel, any miscalculation could trigger a conflict that neither side wants but both seem unable to avoid.
'We are sleepwalking into a war,' a senior British diplomat told me, speaking on condition of anonymity. 'The President's team is listening to hardliners who believe they can break Iran. They cannot. The only way out is through quiet, direct talks. And we need to start now.'
The push for backchannel talks is not new. British intelligence has long maintained informal contacts with Iranian counterparts, often through Omani intermediaries. But the sense of urgency has spiked following a series of incidents in the Gulf, including the downing of a US drone and attacks on oil tankers. The UK's own tanker, the Stena Impero, was seized by Iran last July, a move that escalated tensions further.
Bowen's warning carries weight. He was a vocal opponent of the Iraq invasion and has since become a respected voice on Middle East security. His assessment aligns with intelligence briefings that suggest Iran's proxies in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq are preparing for a broader confrontation. The killing of Qassem Soleimani in January only deepened the cycle of retaliation.
Inside the White House, the message is being received with mixed reactions. Hawkish aides argue that Trump's maximum pressure campaign is working, citing Iran's economic collapse and reduced oil exports. But others, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, have privately signalled a willingness to negotiate without preconditions.
Behind the scenes, the British effort is focusing on a simple objective: get Trump to agree to a ceasefire in everything but name. This would involve halting cyber attacks, reducing naval patrols in the Gulf, and opening a channel for talks on a new nuclear deal. The EU, France, and Germany have also been briefed and are said to be supportive.
'The clock is ticking,' the diplomat added. 'Every day without a backchannel is a day closer to war. The President needs to understand that his legacy depends on ending this, not escalating it.'
The response from Tehran has been cautious but not dismissive. Iranian officials have long demanded an end to sanctions before any talks, but backchannels could allow both sides to save face. The key, according to British sources, is to create a secret space where negotiators can explore a mutual off-ramp.
With Trump's re-election campaign in full swing, the political calculus is delicate. A war with Iran would be deeply unpopular, but so would appearing weak. Bowen's intervention is a reminder that the stakes are existential. As one former CIA officer put it: 'This is how wars start. Not with a bang, but with a failure to talk.'
The question now is whether the White House will listen. For British diplomats, the answer cannot come soon enough.
