The Brazilian Ministry of Health has confirmed two suspected Ebola cases, placing the UK’s Porton Down laboratory on standby. The patients, both exhibiting haemorrhagic fever symptoms, are being monitored in São Paulo. While the risk of a pandemic remains low, markets are already pricing in the cost of fear.
Gold edged up 0.3% on safe-haven flows, and travel stocks took a hit as investors brace for potential border closures. The fiscal arithmetic is grim: containment measures could blow a hole in Brazil’s already strained budget, widening its primary deficit.
For the UK, Porton Down’s readiness is a reminder that biological risks are unhedgeable liabilities. The Bank of England will watch currency markets for capital flight from emerging economies. Ebola’s fatality rate is 50%, but the economic contagion could be just as deadly if history is any guide.
