The data is in. Ten years on from the referendum, the economic picture is sharpening. Trade with Commonwealth nations has jumped 23% since 2016. That’s not a rounding error. That’s a shift in orientation.
Whitehall sources are buzzing. The Department for Business and Trade is briefing that the numbers vindicate the Brexit project. They point to new deals with Australia, New Zealand, and India. The Australian deal alone added £900 million in exports last year. Ministers are gleeful.
But here’s the rub. The ONS also notes that overall trade intensity with the EU has dropped by 15%. The gap is not fully bridged. The Commonwealth surge is real, but it starts from a lower base. The total value of trade with the EU still dwarfs Commonwealth trade by a factor of four.
So what does this mean for the political game? The pro-Brexit faction in the cabinet is using this to argue for further deregulation. They want to slash tariffs on food imports from Africa. That would put them on a collision course with British farmers. The NFU is already gearing up for a fight.
On the backbenches, the European Research Group is cock-a-hoop. They see this as proof that Global Britain is a reality. One senior ERG figure told me: "The doomsters were wrong. We are trading with the world." But the One Nation Tories are nervous. They worry about inflation from food imports. They whisper that the 23% figure includes a lot of service exports, not just goods. That nuance is lost in the shouting.
Meanwhile, Labour is struggling to respond. Starmer’s team had banked on Brexit being a clear failure. Now they are scrambling. They point to the EU trade drop. But the message is muddled. The PM is likely to use this data in PMQs. Expect a boast about "taking back control" and "new horizons."
The real action is in the negotiations for the next batch of trade deals. The US, the big prize, remains elusive. But the Chancellor is pushing for a deal with the Gulf states. That could be announced at the next investment summit. Don’t hold your breath on an American deal before the election.
What does this mean for the election? The Lib Dems will still campaign on rejoining. But the economic data takes the sting out of the Brexit issue. Voters care about cost of living. The government will try to frame this as Brexit dividends. The opposition will say it’s not enough.
One thing is certain. The old assumption that Brexit is a clear economic negative is now contested. The Commonwealth surge gives the government a story to tell. Whether the public buys it is another matter. The Whitehall pub discussions will be lively tonight. The game, as ever, continues.
