The whispers coming out of the White House are electric. US officials are quietly signalling a loosening of the sanctions screw on Tehran. A move that has Number 10 scrambling.
This isn’t just about oil prices. It’s about leverage. And who holds it.
Downing Street’s carefully cultivated alliance with Gulf petrostates is now looking shaky. The Saudis and Emiratis are not happy. They feel exposed. They bet their diplomatic capital on a hardline US stance. Now Washington is changing the game.
One Whitehall source, speaking on condition of anonymity, put it bluntly: “Our friends in the Gulf are furious. They see this as a sell-out. They’re already making calls to Moscow.”
Thin-skinned is an understatement. The phone lines between Riyadh and London are burning.
Meanwhile, Tehran is loving it. Nuclear brinkmanship is their favourite sport. They sense weakness. A senior diplomat in Vienna told me: “The Iranians are walking tall. They know the US blinked first.”
But is this a tactical retreat or a full-blown surrender? The US Treasury is reportedly drawing up new licensing frameworks. Oil majors are circling. The stock price of BP jumped 2% on the rumour alone.
On the ground in the Middle East, the mood is brittle. British diplomats in Abu Dhabi are facing icy receptions. “They’re asking us what our word is worth,” one told me.
And the domestic angle? Labour is watching closely. Keir Starmer’s team is already briefing that this is a sign of Conservative weakness on the world stage. Expect a coordinated attack in PMQs this week.
Backbench Tory MPs are also restless. The European Research Group is sharpening its knives. They smell a betrayal of the special relationship.
But the real fear in the cabinet room is this: if the Gulf states pivot away from London, our energy security is shot. The North Sea is dwindling. Nuclear is years away. Renewables aren’t ready.
One former cabinet minister said: “We’ve put all our eggs in the Saudi basket. If that basket collapses, we’re in the dark. Literally.”
So what happens next? Expect a frantic round of diplomatic fence-mending. Boris Johnson’s old contacts book is being dusted off. But the landscape has shifted.
This is a story about trust. And in politics, trust is a currency that devalues fast.
Keep your eyes on the oil price. And on Tehran’s next move. The nuclear clock is ticking. And Britain is caught in the middle.
