The doors of Number 10 have barely closed on the crisis meeting this afternoon. The Prime Minister has called in the cabinet for an emergency session. Reason: US air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The result: global oil prices spiking. A barrel of Brent crude is now north of $120. That is a number that terrifies the Treasury. It kills growth. It fuels inflation. For a government already polling at 28 per cent, this is a political nuclear winter.
Whitehall sources tell me the mood in the room was grim. The PM's opening gambit was clear: keep calm, carry on, but prepare for the worst. The Foreign Secretary is on a hotline to Washington. The Defence Secretary is reviewing our naval posture in the Gulf. Downing Street is desperate to show it is on top of this. But let us be honest: they are not. No one in Westminster saw this coming. The Americans gave no warning. The intelligence community is scrambling.
The real fear is domestic. Petrol prices were already a wound for this government. Now they could become a haemorrhage. The Treasury is modelling scenarios where petrol hits £2.50 a litre. That is not a blip. That is a political earthquake. The opposition is already sharpening its knives. Labour's shadow chancellor is tweeting about a 'cost-of-living crisis created by a reckless prime minister'. That line will stick.
Backbench Tories are jumpy. I have had three texts from MPs already. They want to know if the PM will recall Parliament. They want to know if he will authorise the use of strategic oil reserves. The answer is: probably. But nothing is decided. The cabinet is split. The Treasury wants to spend. The Foreign Office wants to wait. The PM is, for now, listening.
There is also the diplomatic angle. Britain cannot appear to be America's poodle. Not on this. The PM will have to show some distance from Washington. He will have to call the Iranian president. He will have to be seen to be a peacemaker. But the reality is: he has little leverage. The US is doing what it wants. And the UK is a bystander. That is the uncomfortable truth.
The next 48 hours are critical. Oil prices will decide the political viability of this government. If they stabilise, the PM might survive. If they keep rising, he is in deep trouble. His leadership is already brittle. A full-blown crisis could break it. Watch the polls. Watch the backbenches. Watch the price at the pump. That is where this story ends.
For now, the cabinet sits. The coffee is lukewarm. The mood is tense. Outside, the world is burning. Inside, they are trying to stop the fire from reaching Downing Street.
