Ottawa has officially triggered the six-year review clause of the USMCA, the trade deal binding Canada, the United States and Mexico. Sources confirm the move, telegraphed for weeks, is a calculated gamble to renegotiate terms before the 2026 deadline. The mechanism, buried in Chapter 34 of the agreement, allows any signatory to demand a joint review. Canada pulled the lever on Monday, forcing all three nations back to the table.
Documents obtained by this newsroom reveal a strategy session in Ottawa last month. Trade officials mapped out a hard line on automotive rules of origin and digital services taxes. The Trudeau government wants tighter enforcement of labour provisions and a tougher stance on Chinese transshipment through Mexico. Washington is already pushing back, with leaked memos from USTR showing resistance to reopening the deal’s agricultural chapters.
London is watching closely. UK trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds confirmed in a private briefing that Britain is preparing a parallel push for a bilateral deal with Canada. A source in the Department for Business and Trade said: “The USMCA review is a window. If Canada gets what it wants from the Americans, they’ll be more flexible with us.” The UK has been locked out of full access to Canadian dairy and poultry markets since Brexit. A deal could unlock an estimated £2 billion in additional trade annually.
The timing is no coincidence. Leaked internal emails from Global Affairs Canada show the review was deliberately scheduled to coincide with the UK’s ticking Article 2.2 deadline under the CPTPP. By forcing a USMCA renegotiation now, Canada can use the threat of a US-UK bilateral to extract concessions from Washington, while dangling a Canada-UK deal as bait for London. Michael Kergin, former Canadian ambassador to the US, called it “the oldest game in the book: play one suitor against the other.”
But the risks are real. A breakdown in USMCA talks could rattle markets already jittery over supply chain disruptions. The Canadian dollar dipped 0.3 per cent on the news. Business groups warned against reopening the deal at all. “You never want to give them a second look at the fine print,” said a lobbyist for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, speaking on condition of anonymity. “They’ll just find more things to take out on us.”
For the UK, the path is narrower. Canada’s supply management system is a political third rail. Any deal that opens up dairy or poultry would face fierce opposition from Quebec farmers. But the UK has its own red lines: it wants full mutual recognition of professional qualifications and a deal on digital trade that bypasses provincial barriers. Sources in London admit the talks could stretch past 2026.
A senior Canadian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, dismissed the UK’s ambitions as “aspirational.” The official pointed to Canada’s slow-walked ratification of the CPTPP and its protracted negotiations with the EU. “We’ve been talking to the Brits for five years. The same five sticking points keep coming up.”
Still, the machinery is in motion. The USMCA review triggers a 120-day consultation period, after which formal negotiations begin. Meanwhile, UK officials are drawing up a draft text for a Canada-UK FTA. The first minister-to-minister meeting is expected within weeks. In the murky world of trade diplomacy, both sides are counting cards. The question is who blinks first.
