Eleven dead. A skydiving plane down in France. The casualty count is grim. But read the runes. This is not just a tragedy. It is a political football.
Whitehall sources tell me the Department for Transport is already drafting talking points. The message? Britain’s aviation safety record is unrivalled. The Civil Aviation Authority is the gold standard. They want to draw a line under this. To remind the public that our skies are safe.
But the opposition will not let this slide. Labour’s shadow transport secretary is demanding a review. She wants assurances that UK skydiving operators are not cutting corners. The backbenchers are restless. They smell blood.
And then there is the European dimension. France is a neighbour. Our closest ally. But Brexit poisoned the well. The French will not thank us for lecturing them on safety. Not after we left the European Aviation Safety Agency. The diplomatic cables are already hot. I hear the ambassador in Paris is walking a tightrope.
Meanwhile, the PM is on manoeuvres. Number 10 wants a statement of condolence. But nothing that suggests UK operators are at risk. They are boxed in. A tragedy abroad. A political dilemma at home.
The polling data is instructive. The public trusts the government on aviation safety. By a margin of 15 points. But that trust is fragile. One accident on home soil and the numbers flip. The Treasury knows this. They will not let the CAA budget be cut. Not now.
The families of the dead will want answers. They will not care about politics. But in Westminster, everything is political. The tragedy will be weaponised. Committees will be called. Ministerial statements will be parsed. The Lobby will be buzzing.
I am told the French investigation is just beginning. The black box is being analysed. The wreckage is being examined. But the political narrative is already being written. Britain safe. France flawed. That is the line. The question is: will it hold?
The answer lies in the detail. If the crash was due to pilot error, the line holds. If it was mechanical failure, the line wobbles. If there are questions about maintenance regimes, the line breaks. The insiders are watching closely.
And so are the families. They want justice. Not spin. But spin is what they will get. That is the game. That is Westminster.
Eleven dead. And the blame game begins.
