Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party has claimed a sweeping victory in yesterday’s general election, but the landslide comes amid deepening fears that the country is sliding back into civil war. Official results released this morning show the party securing 410 of the 473 parliamentary seats, a mandate that critics denounce as a rubber stamp for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s increasingly autocratic rule.
Sources on the ground in Tigray and Oromia regions report that voting was marred by widespread intimidation, logistical chaos, and outright ballot stuffing. In Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, polling stations remained shuttered as federal troops blocked access. “They told us the election was not for us,” a local journalist told me by encrypted message. “They said we are not part of Ethiopia anymore.”
The election was sold as a step towards national unity after two years of brutal conflict in Tigray that left an estimated 600,000 dead. But the reality on the streets is anything but united. Military checkpoints now dot the road from Addis Ababa to Bahir Dar, and heavy artillery has been spotted moving towards the northern border. Uncovered documents from within the Ethiopian National Defence Force reveal a contingency plan for a new offensive, codenamed Operation Ankober, targeting Tigrayan rebel positions.
The West has remained largely silent. The US Embassy in Addis Ababa issued a tepid statement calling for “calm and dialogue”, but behind closed doors, diplomats are terrified of another all-out war. “They’re not going to stop him,” a former State Department official told me. “Abiy has made it clear: anyone who opposes him is a terrorist.”
Meanwhile, the economy is in freefall. Inflation hit 34 per cent last month, and the Ethiopian birr has lost a third of its value against the dollar since January. Foreign exchange reserves have dried up, and the black market is now the only game in town. I spoke to a textile factory owner in Adama who said he’s closed his doors. “Who can afford cloth when a loaf of bread costs 150 birr? The government prints money. They don’t care.”
But it’s the politics that scare people most. The Prosperity Party’s victory effectively makes Abiy a dictator with a democratic seal. He has already purged the military and intelligence services, replacing seasoned officers with loyalists from his own Oromo ethnicity. The judiciary is packed, the media muzzled. A source inside the attorney general’s office leaked a memo instructing prosecutors to “prioritise cases against persons deemed to be cooperating with foreign entities”.
The opposition, fractured and leaderless, is now calling for a general strike. In Oromia, farmers have mobilised to form self-defence units. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, despite being declared a terrorist organisation, has regrouped in the mountains. “We have no choice,” a TPLF commander told me via satellite phone. “They want to finish what they started. We will not die quietly.”
The next 72 hours will be critical. If Abiy orders another offensive, Ethiopia could splinter into a warlord state. If he holds back, he risks a coup from his own generals who smell blood. Either way, the landslide victory is a mirage. The real election is being fought with bullets, not ballots.
