The Kremlin is playing a dangerous game. A Russian warship fired warning shots at a British yacht in the English Channel this afternoon. Diplomatic sources confirm the incident occurred 12 nautical miles off the Sussex coast. A clear escalation. A provocation.
The yacht, a 50-foot ketch registered in Poole, was en route to Cherbourg. The vessel, the 'Lady Jane', has been racing in the Solent for years. Its crew of four are safe, but shaken. The Russian vessel, the 'Steregushchiy', a modern corvette, was tracked by RAF Poseidon aircraft. It had been shadowing a NATO exercise in the North Sea. The shots came without warning.
Downing Street is convening an emergency COBRA meeting tonight. The Foreign Office is summoning the Russian ambassador. They will demand an explanation. But what is there to say? The Russian narrative will be self-defence. They will claim the yacht strayed into a declared exercise zone. The Ministry of Defence says no such zone existed. The Russians, as ever, are rewriting the rules.
This is not the first incident. In November, a Russian destroyer closed within 50 metres of a Dutch patrol boat. Last year, a Russian submarine was spotted off the coast of Scotland. Each time, the response is the same. Condemnation. Diplomacy. But the game is changing. The Channel is a global trade artery. This is a direct challenge to British sovereignty.
The timing is critical. The Prime Minister is fighting a rebellion over defence spending. Backbenchers are demanding more ships, more aircraft. This will give them ammunition. The Treasury will resist. They always do. But the optics are impossible. A Russian warship firing on a British yacht in our own waters. The public will not forget.
NATO allies are watching. The US has offered support. The French have scrambled a Rafale. But the burden falls on London. The Royal Navy has just 19 frigates and destroyers. Half are in refit. The Russian Baltic Fleet is three times that size. The arithmetic is stark.
The crew of the 'Lady Jane' are being debriefed by intelligence. Their testimony will be crucial. Did they feel threatened? Did they see the corvette earlier? The answers will shape the narrative. But the real story is in Moscow. Putin tests, always tests. He seeks a reaction, a overreaction. He wants to split the West. The Prime Minister must tread carefully. Firm but not reckless.
This is Eleanor Rigby, Political Bureau Chief. The game has just got a lot more dangerous.
