The dominoes are falling. Latvia's Prime Minister, Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš, is out. A snap election looms. The trigger? A Ukrainian drone incursion. A single, errant drone. It crossed from Belarus. It landed in a farmer's field near Riga. No casualties. But Kariņš's coalition shattered. The nationalists called it a betrayal. They said he was weak on defence. Too cozy with Kyiv. The numbers in the Saeima turned. A confidence vote lost by 12. The Kremlin watches. Smiles.
Here in London, the mood is grim. Not panic. But a tightening in the gut. The Baltic states are our canaries. If they wobble, Putin hears the song. Downing Street issued a statement. 'We stand with our Baltic allies.' Hollow words? Perhaps. But there are quiet channels. The PM called the Estonian and Lithuanian leaders last night. Keep calm. Don't blink. The real fear: a chain reaction. If Riga falls to internal chaos, Tallinn and Vilnius feel the ground shift. The NATO tripwire looks frayed.
Inside the Foreign Office, they talk of a 'new normal.' Drone incursions are becoming routine. Russian calibrated. This one, they whisper, was a test. Ukraine denies involvement. But the drone's design matches a Ukrainian model. The Latvian security service was asleep. The PM paid the price.
Westminster watches. The usual suspects are sharpening their knives. 'Told you so,' from the Tory eurosceptics. They never trusted the Baltic commitment. Labour stays quiet. For now. But shadow ministers are asking questions. What if it happens here? A drone over Suffolk? The PM's spokesman gave a classic non-answer. 'We have robust protocols.'
The polling data is stark. Support for NATO in Latvia has dropped 9 points in a month. Kariņš's approval was already underwater. The drone was the last straw. The next PM will be a nationalist. Expect fireworks.
London's strategy is damage control. Diplomatic cables flying. Reassure. Cajole. Threaten. The US is looped in. Biden's team is calm. But they're watching. The Baltic states are a test of resolve. If they crack, the whole eastern flank looks hollow.
Who gains? Putin. He can sit back. Watch the West eat itself. The drone wasn't a weapon. It was a message. 'Your borders are porous. Your unity is fragile.'
The bickering has already begun. Poland blaming Germany for not funding Baltic air defence. Germany blaming France. France blaming everyone. A perfect theatre of fragmentation.
Inside the Conservative Party, there is talk. A backbench amendment to increase defence spending. Tied to a vote of confidence? The whips are nervous. The PM's majority is thin. One bad by-election could tip it.
The story is not over. The next act: the Latvian election campaign. Expect Russian propaganda. Expect Ukrainian fury. Expect British hand-wringing.
I heard a source in the Cabinet Office say it best: 'We are one drone away from a crisis. And we don't have a plan.'
