The first round of US-Iran talks, brokered by UK diplomats in a neutral Gulf state, has ended with what Number 10 is calling “encouraging progress.” But in the Lobby, the grown-ups know this is the easy part. The hard bargaining begins now.
I’m hearing from a senior Foreign Office source that the UK’s chief negotiator, a seasoned hand from the Iran desk, managed to keep both sides in the room for an extra 45 minutes. That’s not nothing in this game. The Americans wanted to walk early. The Iranians were playing their usual game of brinkmanship. But the Brits, with their quiet brand of shuttle diplomacy, pulled off what one Downing Street insider described as a “minor miracle.”
But let’s not kid ourselves. This is a confidence-building measure, not a breakthrough. The real prize – stopping Iran’s nuclear breakout – remains elusive. The mood in Westminster is cautious. The usual suspects on the Tory backbenches are already sharpening their knives, muttering about “appeasement.” Expect a written ministerial statement this afternoon, followed by a round of broadcast interviews designed to manage expectations.
The UK’s role here is classic: the honest broker with no dog in the fight. But that cuts both ways. It gives us leverage, yes. It also means we can be sidelined the moment the big powers want to cut a bilateral deal. The question now is whether this “progress” can survive the next round. I wouldn’t bet the house on it. Not yet.