Something is shifting in the Geneva hotel corridors. The stale air of diplomatic impasse has been replaced by a cautious sort of hope. British mediators, huddled in side rooms with American and Iranian delegations, have declared the talks “encouraging.” Sources close to the negotiations say both sides are finally engaging on the core issues: enrichment levels, sanctions relief, and the timeline for a renewed framework.
One Foreign Office insider described the mood as “the most constructive we’ve seen since 2015.” That is a significant admission. It suggests the UK’s quiet shuttle diplomacy – shuttling between the US team led by Special Envoy Robert Malley and the Iranian delegation headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani – is yielding results.
The White House was characteristically cautious, offering only that “progress has been made” but stressing that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.” Yet the language from Downing Street was warmer. A Number 10 source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Prime Minister is “pleased with the trajectory” and believes a breakthrough could be “within reach” before the summer recess.
That would be a major win for the PM, who has staked considerable personal capital on reviving the nuclear deal. He has faced criticism from Tory backbenchers for being too soft on Iran, but the prospect of a diplomatic success could silence some of his louder critics.
The sticking points remain the usual suspects: Iran’s ballistic missile programme, its regional proxies, and the level of uranium enrichment. But there are signs of flexibility. Tehran has reportedly accepted in principle a phased removal of sanctions, while Washington has signalled it could accept limited enrichment on Iranian soil under strict IAEA oversight.
What changed? The back channels. British officials have been working the phones for months, cultivating trust on both sides. One veteran diplomat told me: “The Americans needed someone who could talk to the Iranians without setting off alarms. We were that someone.”
The timing is critical. The Biden administration is eyeing the 2024 election cycle and wants to avoid a prolonged crisis. Tehran, meanwhile, is feeling the economic squeeze. The combination makes for a rare window of opportunity.
But caution is warranted. Past breakthroughs have collapsed at the final hurdle. Hardliners on both sides will fight to derail any deal. And Israel is watching with undisguised alarm.
For now, the champagne stays on ice. But the mood music has changed. Watch this space.