The whispers have been confirmed. The White House pulled back from the brink. In a late-night phone call that has sent shockwaves through the Foreign Office, President Biden waived the naval blockade on Iranian oil exports. The stated reason? To avoid a catastrophic war in the Strait of Hormuz. But off the record? The price may have been paid in British coin.
Senior diplomatic sources tell me the deal was cooked up over three days of frantic backchannel chatter. The US needed a face-saving exit from the escalating crisis. The Ayatollah's regime demanded one thing: relief from the crushing sanctions that had cut Iran's oil sales by 80%. Biden blinked. The blockade was lifted. Oil tankers are now steaming towards Bandar Abbas.
So where does that leave His Majesty's Government? The answer is uncomfortable. Number 10 was kept in the dark until the last minute. The official line from the NSC is that they were 'consulted throughout.' My contacts in Whitehall call that a 'diplomatic fiction.' The truth is, the UK was presented with a fait accompli. We are now scrambling to adjust our own naval posture in the Gulf.
The cost, I am told, is twofold. First, a direct diplomatic cost. London’s push for a tougher stance on Iran's nuclear programme has been undermined. The US, by lifting the blockade, has signalled that the 'maximum pressure' policy is dead. British diplomats in Vienna now find themselves isolated. The French are furious. The Germans are confused. Our own ambassador is said to be 'livid.'
Second, there is the commercial cost. British firms with exposure to Iranian markets or Gulf shipping routes are already facing uncertainty. The insurance premiums on tankers have not yet fallen. There are whispers of a secret side deal involving Iranian oil sales to our own refiners. If that is true, it would be a political firestorm for the Prime Minister. The Treasury is refusing to comment. That silence is deafening.
There is a deeper game here. The US lift came hours before a scheduled vote on new EU sanctions. That vote has now been postponed. Some see the hand of Russian diplomacy. Others suspect a Chinese brokered backroom arrangement. What is clear is that the old transatlantic certainties are fraying. The special relationship? It looks a lot like a one-way street today.
Backbenchers are restless. I count at least a dozen letters for a no-confidence motion already drafted but not yet sent. The Prime Minister's own MPs are asking questions he cannot answer. What does Britain get in return? A pat on the head? A guarantee that our naval assets in Bahrain are safe? The silence from the White House is telling.
This is a story still in motion. But one thing is certain: the cost of this American climbdown is being tallied in London. And the bill will come due.
