A decade on from the Brexit vote, the economic picture is sharpening. New figures from the Office for National Statistics show that UK exports have defied dire predictions, outpacing the performance of many European Union member states. For the industrial towns I grew up in, this is not just a statistic. It is about the factories that have kept their lights on and the jobs that have stayed put.
The data, released this morning, shows that British goods exports to non-EU markets have grown by nearly 8% since 2016, while exports to the EU have held steady after an initial dip. Compare that with Germany, where exports have grown by only 2% over the same period, or France where they have contracted. The trade deals struck since leaving the bloc – with Australia, New Zealand, and Japan – have opened new doors. Yet the picture is uneven. Small businesses, the backbone of the high street and the supply chain, still struggle with new customs forms and checks. The cost of meeting those requirements has pushed up prices for consumers, hitting the poorest households hardest.
We must remember what this means for the kitchen table. Wages in export-heavy sectors have risen slightly faster than inflation, but the cost of living remains stubbornly high. A loaf of bread, the most basic measure of economic health, costs 15% more than it did in 2016. For a family in Barnsley or Burnley, that is a real pinch. The Resolution Foundation notes that the lowest paid have seen their real terms pay rise by only 3% since the referendum, while the top earners have gained 8%.
Union leaders are cautious. The TUC's general secretary told me this morning: "Exports may be up, but that doesn't fill the shelves in our local shops. We need to see the benefits trickle down." Strikes over pay have hit ports and warehouses, where workers feel they have not shared in the export boom. In Southampton and Felixstowe, dockworkers have walked out over failed wage negotiations.
Let us be honest about what the data does not show: the hollowing out of our town centres or the strain on public services from a decade of austerity compounded by Brexit disruption. The government points to the exports as a vindication. The opposition calls it a missed opportunity to remain close to our biggest market.
For now, the numbers offer a glimmer of hope for those who argued that Britain could forge its own path. But the full bill for the past ten years is not yet paid. The real test will be whether that export growth translates into stable jobs and affordable living for the people I write for: the workers, the union members, the families counting every penny. That story is still being written.
