A decade on from the referendum that reshaped Britain’s place in the world, the economic picture is finally coming into focus. It’s not the simple story of boom or bust that either side predicted. Instead, it’s a messy, human tale of trade-offs and adaptation.
On the streets of Stoke-on-Trent, where ‘Leave’ won by a landslide, I met Derek, a ceramics factory owner. He told me his export paperwork has quadrupled, but his order book from Japan has doubled. He’s hiring again, but it’s specialist staff he can’t find locally.
That’s the paradox of sovereignty: you gain control, but you lose the easy flow of people and goods. The data bears this out. Trade with the EU has dropped by 15 per cent, but non-EU trade has surged, particularly in services and high-tech manufacturing.
The ‘Singapore-on-Thames’ vision hasn’t fully materialised, but there are green shoots. British financial regulators now have the freedom to diverge from Brussels, and they’ve used it to list more tech companies. Yet, the human cost is visible in the NHS, where the exodus of European nurses has left gaps that domestic training hasn’t filled.
Class dynamics have shifted too. The working-class northern towns that voted Leave have seen some new investment, but it’s often in automation, not jobs. The middle classes in London have absorbed the costs of customs delays and inflation.
Culturally, the mood is more pragmatic. The old rancour has faded. People are too busy navigating the new normal.
Brexit wasn’t an event; it’s a process. And ten years on, the process is still running.
