Westminster is watching the Persian Gulf with a new edge today. We've just learned the UK will throw its weight behind a UN-led evacuation of the Strait of Hormuz. The move comes as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivers a blistering condemnation of Iranian threats to impose tolls on commercial shipping.
This is not a drill. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil chokepoint. Any disruption sends prices spiking and panic rippling through Treasury. The PM's team has been huddled with the Foreign Office all morning. They know this could blow up into a full-blown crisis.
Here's the inside line. The UN evacuation proposal is a classic British play. It looks multilateral, it buys time, and it puts the Iranians on the back foot diplomatically. But make no mistake, this is a hardening of the UK position. We're no longer just wringing our hands. We're preparing for the worst.
Rubio's statement was pure flint. He didn't just criticise Iran. He called out the regime's 'piracy' and warned of consequences. That's the language of escalation. Sources tell me the US is pushing for a naval escort operation within days. The RAF has already moved assets to the region. The Navy is on standby.
Why now? Because the Iranian toll threat is real. They've been testing the waters. A couple of ships were delayed last week. Insurance rates have tripled. The Treasury is briefing that a closed Hormuz for a week would cost the UK economy billions. The political fallout would be brutal.
Back in Westminster, the mood is tense. The usual suspects on the backbenches are demanding Parliament be recalled. The Foreign Office Select Committee is calling for urgent evidence. The Speaker is under pressure. No one wants a summer crisis, but here we are.
There's another angle. This evacuation isn't just about ships. It's about people. Thousands of British nationals work in the Gulf states. If the Strait closes, they're stranded. The MOD has been quietly drawing up contingency plans for years. They're now being dusted off.
The Cabinet is split. The Chancellor's camp is worried about the cost. The Defence Secretary is pushing for a show of force. No. 10 is trying to manage both. But the clock is ticking. Iran knows that. They're counting on Western paralysis.
One thing is clear. The old rules of engagement have changed. This isn't 2019. The UK is no longer a bit player. We're leading the evacuation effort. That's a big call. It could define this government's foreign policy legacy.
Watch the polls. If oil hits $100 a barrel, the political pressure will become unbearable. The opposition is already sharpening its knives. They'll ask: why didn't we prepare earlier? The answer is uncomfortable: because no one thought it would come to this.
I'll be watching the FCDO briefing later. Expect more announcements. Expect tougher language. And expect the Iranians to up the ante. This is a game of chicken, and both sides are flooring it.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is now a test of British resolve. The evacuation is the first move. It won't be the last.
