The British government has called for de-escalation as the United States and Iran initiated direct negotiations in Muscat, Oman, with Tehran reiterating its threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz if diplomatic efforts fail. The talks, the first high-level encounter between the two adversaries since the breakdown of the 2015 nuclear deal, are unfolding against a backdrop of heightened military posturing in the Persian Gulf.
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly issued a statement expressing London's support for the dialogue while emphasising the imperative of maintaining freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply transits. “We urge all parties to exercise restraint and engage constructively. Any unilateral action that disrupts global energy markets would be deeply destabilising,” Cleverly said.
Iran’s chief negotiator, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, confirmed that Tehran has prepared contingency plans to close the strait if its security or economic interests are threatened. “We do not seek conflict, but we will not hesitate to defend our sovereignty,” he told reporters. The warning comes amid ongoing confrontations between Iranian fast-attack craft and US naval vessels in the Gulf.
The US delegation, led by Special Envoy Robert Malley, has insisted that Iran must halt its enrichment of uranium to near-weapons grade and provide full access to International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors. Washington has also demanded that Tehran cease its support for proxy forces in the region. Iran has countered that the US must lift all sanctions imposed since 2018 and provide guarantees against future unilateral withdrawals.
Analysts view the talks as a last-ditch effort to prevent a military confrontation that could cripple global oil supplies and trigger a sharp spike in energy prices. “Both sides have painted themselves into corners domestically, which makes compromise difficult but not impossible,” said Dr. Elizabeth Rainsford, a Middle East analyst at the Royal United Services Institute. “The Strait of Hormuz threat is a familiar bargaining chip, but one that carries real risks of miscalculation.”
The British government has maintained quiet diplomatic channels with both Washington and Tehran, encouraging dialogue while preparing for worst-case scenarios. The Royal Navy has maintained a continuous presence in the Gulf as part of the International Maritime Security Construct, and defence sources confirm that HMS Diamond and HMS Daring are on station off the Strait of Hormuz. “We are positioned to protect British merchant shipping and support coalition operations if required,” a Ministry of Defence spokesperson said.
Market reaction has been cautious but not panicked. Brent crude futures rose 2.3 per cent on the announcement of the talks, traders citing the potential for disruption. Options pricing suggests a one-in-four chance of a temporary closure of the strait within the next three months. OPEC+ members have indicated they could tap spare capacity to stabilise markets, though Saudi Arabia has warned that a prolonged closure would overwhelm stockpiles.
The talks are scheduled to continue for two days, with a joint statement expected on Thursday. Diplomats from Oman have shuttled between the two delegations, and sources indicate that both sides have signalled flexibility on some technical issues, including the timing of sanctions relief and verification mechanisms at Iranian nuclear sites. However, the Strait of Hormuz question remains the most explosive point of contention.
Analysts caution that even if a breakthrough is achieved in Muscat, implementation will face intense scrutiny from hardliners in both capitals. “The path from this negotiating table to a stabilised Gulf is narrow and strewn with tripwires,” Dr. Rainsford said. “But the alternative is a crisis that no one wants.”
