A fresh analysis of thousands of social media posts from former US President Donald Trump has caught the attention of British intelligence. The pattern, they say, reveals a systematic use of disinformation tactics that mirror state-level information warfare. For those of us who have watched the corrosion of public discourse, this is not a surprise. It is a market correction in the truth economy, long overdue.
Analysts at GCHQ’s Cybersecurity and Information Resilience Unit have reportedly sifted through over 10,000 posts spanning Trump’s time in office and his post-presidency. The verdict: a consistent use of 'firehose of falsehood' techniques, including repetition of baseless claims, ad hominem attacks on credible sources, and the exploitation of algorithmic amplification. The parallels to Kremlin-style influence operations are stark, though the target is domestic rather than foreign.
Let’s be clear. This is not about partisan point-scoring. It is about the integrity of the information market. Disinformation is a tax on rational decision-making. When voters or investors cannot distinguish fact from fiction, efficiency collapses. We end up with a mispricing of risk, whether in the bond market or the ballot box.
The UK government has so far declined to name Trump directly in official statements, but the implication is inescapable. The leaked assessment warns that the tactics observed could embolden copycats, eroding trust in democratic processes. Meanwhile, the Trump camp has dismissed the report as a politically motivated leak from a foreign government. But the data speaks for itself.
From a fiscal perspective, this matters. Stable democracies command a premium in global capital markets. The US dollar and Treasury yields have historically benefited from America’s perceived institutional resilience. If we see a sustained assault on the credibility of elections and media, that premium erodes. Already, we have seen bouts of volatility in US sovereign debt linked to political uncertainty.
The silver lining, if you can call it that, is that central banks and financial regulators are slowly waking up to the systemic risk of disinformation. The Bank of England has recently flagged 'information contagion' as a potential amplifier of financial instability. Expect more calls for algorithmic transparency and digital identity verification. The market will demand it, or it will adjust risk premiums accordingly.
Let’s not mince words: the real cost of disinformation is not just political. It is an invisible drag on economic growth, a leakage of trust that compounds like a bad debt. And as any accountant will tell you, bad debts eventually get written off. The question is: who bears the loss?
