Sources close to the Joint Intelligence Committee have confirmed that MI6 assessments now predict a sharp escalation in naval confrontations between Iran and the United States in the Strait of Hormuz. The warning, circulated to Whitehall departments this week, cites recent Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps drills simulating small boat swarm attacks on commercial tankers. Uncovered shipping manifests show a 30% increase in Iranian crude cargoes being rerouted through non-Gulf ports, a classic flag of convenience tactic.
Internal Foreign Office briefing notes, obtained by this paper, reveal that UK officials fear a miscalculation could close the strait within 48 hours, choking off 20% of the world's oil supply. The Ministry of Defence has declined to comment, but a Royal Navy source confirmed HMS Montrose is already shadowing an Iranian frigate near the Khor Fakkan anchorage. This is a slow motion fuse, and no one in London or Washington wants to be the one to light it.
