British intelligence analysts have concluded that Donald Trump’s transactional approach to Gulf diplomacy may inadvertently destabilise a region already fraught with rivalries. A confidential assessment, circulated among senior Whitehall officials this week, warns that the former US president’s habit of framing complex security arrangements as “deals” risks eroding the institutional frameworks that underpin Gulf stability.
The report, prepared by the Joint Intelligence Organisation, examines the potential fallout should Trump return to office. It argues that his preference for personal relationships over multilateral agreements could embolden revisionist powers, particularly Iran and its proxies. “The Gulf states have long relied on a predictable US security umbrella,” the assessment states. “A shift toward transactional bilateralism, without regard for broader regional architecture, could lead to miscalculation and escalation.”
The warning comes amid renewed speculation about Trump’s 2024 campaign pledges. He has repeatedly vowed to “negotiate peace deals” with Tehran and has praised Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as a “friend”. Yet British analysts note that Trump’s first term saw the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais attacks, which temporarily halved Saudi oil output, and the 2020 assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani – neither of which followed a coherent strategy.
“The ‘deal’ rhetoric masks an underlying unpredictability,” said a former senior Foreign Office official familiar with the intelligence. “In the Gulf, credibility is paramount. When a president sells policy as a transaction, it implies that commitments are revocable. That is dangerous when your partners are authoritarian regimes that prize consistency.”
The assessment highlights three specific risks. First, that Trump’s possible withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal – which he did in 2018 – would again leave Gulf states exposed to Iranian brinkmanship. Second, that his administration might pressure Gulf allies to normalise relations with Israel without resolving the Palestinian question, inflaming public opinion. Third, that his neglect of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s internal mediation could empower Qatar or Oman to pursue independent foreign policies, fragmenting the bloc.
A spokesman for the British Embassy in Washington declined to comment on the intelligence assessment, saying only that “the United Kingdom maintains a close dialogue with all parties concerned”. However, sources say the report has been shared with senior figures in the Biden administration, who have expressed private alarm.
For now, the Gulf appears stable. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have diversified their alliances, seeking closer ties with China and Russia. But the JIO assessment warns that a second Trump term could accelerate this drift. “The Gulf states are hedging. If Washington is seen as unreliable, they will continue to look east. That would represent a strategic victory for Beijing and Moscow, and a loss of influence for the West.”
The report concludes with a recommendation: that the British government publicly reaffirm its commitment to the multilateral security architecture in the Gulf, even if the United States steps back. “Soft power and institutional continuity can compensate for transactional disruption,” it says. “But only if London acts decisively.”
