The number of Indian students applying to UK universities is falling sharply, a trend that vice-chancellors blame on the plunging rupee and a string of restrictive visa changes. An emergency meeting of universities UK is expected to call for a more predictable immigration system, warning that the loss of international fee income will hit both institutions and the towns that depend on them.
For families in Punjab, Gujarat and Mumbai, the dream of a British degree has become a costly gamble. The rupee has fallen more than 10 per cent against the pound in the last year, pushing annual fees and living costs beyond the reach of many middle-class households. At the same time, a succession of Home Office tweaks to the graduate route visa and dependant rules has made the post-study path to work feel less secure. Ravi Singh, a prospective master’s student from Chandigarh, told me: “I had my heart set on Manchester. Now I’m looking at Canada. It’s not just the money, it’s the anxiety of not knowing if I’ll be allowed to stay after graduation.”
Universities have grown addicted to the fees Indian students pay. They now account for roughly a quarter of all non-EU enrolments and contribute over £4 billion a year to the economy. A drop in applications hits the bottom line hard, with the most vulnerable regional universities likely to suffer first. The University of Bedfordshire, which relies heavily on international fees, has already reported a 15 per cent decline in applications from India this cycle.
The Home Office defends its approach, saying it is “cracking down on abuse” of the student visa system and ensuring that only genuine students come. But university leaders argue that the constant churn of rules is itself a deterrent. “Businesses need stability to invest. So do students,” said Professor Dame Nancy Rothwell, president of Universities UK. “If we keep moving the goalposts, families will simply take their money elsewhere.”
However, the troubles of the UK’s higher education sector cannot simply be blamed on Whitehall. The real problem is the stagnant wages and rising living costs that make the country less attractive to begin with. A student from Delhi who can afford £25,000 a year in fees is probably the child of a professional, but even that family feels the pinch when their local rents have soared and the exchange rate keeps sliding. Meanwhile, graduate starting salaries in the UK have barely budged, meaning the return on investment for a master’s degree looks thinner than it did five years ago.
The Indian government, for its part, is actively promoting study in countries like Germany, France and Canada, where fees are lower and the immigration system is clearer. The number of Indian students in Canada has doubled since 2019; here it has risen only modestly.
For the UK’s industrial towns, the loss of Indian students is not just an abstract statistic. In Sunderland, Leicester and Slough, local shops, landlords and bus companies depend on the spending power of international students. When they stop coming, the ripple effect is felt on the high street. A landlord in Middlesbrough told me that four student houses in his portfolio are now empty, and he is thinking of selling up.
The government says it wants to reduce net migration while maintaining the benefits of international education. But these two aims are in direct tension. If the visa environment remains hostile, the students will vote with their feet. The Treasury will lose a vital source of export revenue, and the university sector will be forced to cut courses or merge. That will hit British students hardest, especially those from poorer backgrounds who rely on the cross-subsidy that international fees provide.
The message from the sector is clear: stop the policy churn and give families the stability they need. Until then, the Indian student exodus will continue, and the damage will be felt far beyond the campus gates.
