Westminster was taken by surprise this morning when news broke from Ouagadougou. Burkina Faso’s military junta has severed diplomatic relations with France. The decision, announced in a terse statement on state television, cites “neocolonial interference” and a desire for “complete sovereignty”. It is the latest and most dramatic rupture in a row that has been building for months across France’s former Sahelian empire. Mali and Niger have already expelled French troops and ambassadors. Now Burkina has gone a step further and cut all ties.
Downing Street reacted quickly. A Number 10 spokesman issued a statement expressing “deep concern” and calling for “de-escalation and dialogue”. More tellingly, the Foreign Office has quietly floated the idea of Commonwealth mediation. That is a notable intervention. The Commonwealth has no formal role in West Africa outside its anglophone members. Burkina Faso is a former French colony, a member of the Francophonie. Its official language is French. But British diplomats see an opening. They watch the chaotic French withdrawal from the region with a mixture of glee and apprehension. Glee because it weakens a rival. Apprehension because the security vacuum is being filled by Russian mercenaries.
The Kremlin’s Wagner Group has been active in Mali and the Central African Republic. Western intelligence suggests they have been sounding out Burkina Faso’s junta too. That prospect terrifies Whitehall. The Sahel is a tinderbox. Jihadist groups linked to Al Qaeda and Islamic State control large swaths of territory. Instability there has a way of washing up on Europe’s shores. Migration routes. Terrorist networks. The British government has its own counter-terrorism interests in the region, mostly through the UN mission in Mali. That mission is now in jeopardy.
But this is also domestic politics. The Prime Minister is under pressure from his own backbenchers over foreign aid cuts and a perceived lack of global engagement. The call for Commonwealth mediation is a cheap way to look statesmanlike. It costs nothing. It might not go anywhere. Burkina Faso’s junta leader, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, has shown little interest in Western overtures. He has courted Russia and Turkey. He has denounced France in terms that echo the Kremlin’s own propaganda. Still, Downing Street calculates that keeping a foot in the door is wise.
The French are furious. They see British meddling as opportunistic. French diplomats were caught off guard by the Burkina Faso announcement. They had been trying to salvage relations. Now they have been expelled. The Elysée is licking its wounds. Macron’s Africa policy is in tatters. The British know this and are quietly exploiting it. It is not quite perfidious Albion. But it is close.
What happens next? The Commonwealth Secretariat in Marlborough House will have to issue a formal response. The Secretary-General, Patricia Scotland, will be cautious. She will not want to antagonise France. But she will not want to turn down a request from a major member state like Britain. Expect a statement about “good offices” and “readiness to support dialogue”. The actual mediation, if it happens, will be low-key. A special envoy with experience in francophone Africa. Perhaps a former diplomat. The sort of person who knows how to talk to juntas.
The real question is whether Burkina Faso will accept. Traoré is a captain who overthrew his own colonel. He is young, radical, and popular at home. He sees France as the enemy. He might see Britain as a useful counterweight. Or he might see the Commonwealth as a Trojan horse for the same old Western interests. The next few weeks will tell. For now, Whitehall is working the phones. The Lobby is buzzing. A new game is afoot in Africa.
