The clock is ticking on North American trade talks. Deadline: midnight Friday. A deal is not certain. No one is confident. Everyone is watching Justin Trudeau. He holds the cards. Not everything is in his hands. The White House wants concessions. Canadian dairy is a sticking point. American carmakers want rules of origin changed. It is a mess. A perfect mess for the UK.
Westminster is alert. Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch has a small team monitoring the situation. They are looking for an angle. A fast-track bilateral. A sectoral agreement. Something small, symbolic, but real. Number 10 is interested. The mood in the building is opportunistic. They see a gap. The US is distracted. Canada needs friends. The UK can offer that.
Sources in the Department for Business and Trade tell me the leverage is limited. But the timing is good. The UK has a fresh mandate. It is outside the EU. It can move faster. The EU is tied up in its own disputes with Washington. The UK is flexible. That is the pitch. 'We can do a deal quickly. You need a win. We offer a win.'
Of course, nothing is simple. The Canadian government is preoccupied. They will not drop everything for a UK side-deal. But there are low-hanging fruits. Mutual recognition of professional qualifications. Regulatory cooperation on financial services. A small tariff reduction on whisky. Things that do not require a full treaty. Things that can be done in weeks, not years.
Labour is watching too. Shadow Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has been quiet. His team is taking notes. If a deal emerges, they will claim credit for laying the groundwork. If it fails, they will blame government incompetence. Standard operating procedure.
Backbench Conservatives are split. The Eurosceptic wing wants a full US trade deal immediately. They do not understand why it is taking so long. The moderates say be patient. A small deal with Canada could be a blueprint. It shows the world the UK is open for business. It builds momentum. It also annoys the EU. That is a bonus for some.
What happens next depends on Ottawa. The talks will go down to the wire. Expect late night calls. Expect leaks to friendly journalists. Expect the narrative to shift. Right now, the smart money says no deal by Friday. But that might be the best outcome for the UK. A breakdown in North America makes Canada and Mexico more willing to talk. Desperation is a good negotiating tool.
I am told the UK team has prepared three scenarios. One: A successful North American agreement. Two: A limited agreement that leaves room for UK deals. Three: Total collapse. Scenarios two and three are the ones they are working on. They are ready to pounce. The question is whether Canada is ready to respond.
The PM is not involved yet. He will be if a deal crystallises. He likes to be the closer. He also likes to be seen as the global trade champion. Brexit was about sovereignty. Now it is about free trade. That is the line. This is an opportunity to prove it works.
Will it happen? Too early to say. But the odds are better than they were a month ago. The deadline concentrates minds. And for the UK, every deadline is a chance to carve out a slice of the action.
