When Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor turned Canadian finance minister, called Alberta ‘essential’ to the federation last week, it felt less like a statement of fact and more like a plea. The remark came as the province edges closer to a referendum on separating from Canada — a vote that, if passed, would send shockwaves through a country already fraying at its federal seams.
But this is not just a story about Canadian politics. It is a story about the fragility of unions everywhere, including our own. The United Kingdom, with its own separatist rumblings in Scotland and Wales, watches as Canada’s ‘Western alienation’ mirrors our own regional discontents. The parallels are uncomfortable: a resource-rich region feeling ignored by a distant capital, a cultural identity forged in opposition to the centre, and a creeping sense that the national project has failed to deliver.
On the streets of Calgary and Edmonton, you hear a different language. ‘We pay for the rest of Canada,’ a local told me last year, standing outside a Tim Hortons. ‘They take our oil money and give us lectures.’ That sentiment is not new. But what is new is the institutional heft behind it: the United Conservative Party, led by Danielle Smith, has made separation a mainstream proposition. The ‘Alberta Sovereignty Act’ passed in 2022 gives the province legal tools to defy federal law. Now, a referendum looms.
Carney’s intervention is a classic unionist move — remind the rebellious region that it matters, that the centre cannot function without it. But in the age of fractured loyalties, such gestures often backfire. Alberta’s grievance is not just economic; it is cultural. The province sees itself as the hard-working, tax-paying engine of a country that would rather champion diversity than productivity. It resents the moralising tone of Ottawa, the environmental restrictions, the transfer payments to poorer provinces.
This is where the British observer feels a chill of recognition. Replace ‘Alberta’ with ‘the North of England’, and ‘Ottawa’ with ‘Westminster’. The same language of ‘levelling up’ and ‘overlooked heartlands’ echoes in both federations. In the UK, the 2019 election saw the Conservatives sweep the ‘Red Wall’ on a promise of respect and investment. But the Brexit divide, the cost-of-living crisis, and the lingering pandemic have soured that bargain. Now, polls show growing support for Scottish independence and even Welsh devolution to the point of separation.
Carney, a steady hand in a crisis, knows that federalism requires constant reaffirmation. His declaration is part of a broader campaign to rebrand Canada as a ‘partnership of equals’ rather than a hierarchy with Ontario and Quebec at the top. But words alone will not fix the structural imbalances. Alberta generates massive oil revenues that it feels are squandered by a federal government with different priorities. Similarly, London’s fiscal grip on the regions breeds resentment.
The human cost of this drift is palpable. In Alberta, young people are leaving for Texas or the UK, disillusioned with Canadian prospects. In Scotland, families are divided over the future of the union. In both cases, the elites talk of ‘shared destiny’ while ordinary people feel abandoned. The cultural shift is from a ‘one nation’ mentality to a ‘what’s in it for me?’ calculation. And that calculation rarely favours the centre.
Carney’s move may buy time. But time is not on the side of unions. They require constant tending, a respect for the periphery, and a willingness to redistribute not just money but power. If Carney fails, and Alberta votes to leave, it will not be a Canadian tragedy alone. It will be a warning for every federation, including our own, that a union based on neglect cannot last.
