The Director of the Central Intelligence Agency has landed in Havana as Cuba’s energy infrastructure crumbles. The visit, confirmed by US and Cuban sources, comes as the island nation faces what officials describe as a systemic collapse of its electrical grid. The United Kingdom has placed its Caribbean territories on heightened alert, monitoring the regional fallout with growing concern.
Cuba’s energy crisis has deepened over recent weeks. Rolling blackouts now affect 18 of its 16 provinces for up to 16 hours per day. The country’s sole oil-fired power plant, the Antonio Guiteras plant in Matanzas, is operating at less than 40% capacity due to ageing equipment and fuel shortages. Cuba produces roughly 40,000 barrels of oil per day, but its demand exceeds 100,000 barrels, forcing reliance on imported crude from Venezuela and Russia. Both suppliers have reduced shipments: Venezuela’s own production has fallen to 700,000 barrels per day, a 70% decline since 2015, while Russia’s exports are diverted to its war efforts in Ukraine.
The CIA director’s presence indicates US assessment of the crisis as a strategic risk to hemispheric stability. The agency is likely evaluating opportunities to reengage with Cuba while also monitoring potential mass migration. The US Coast Guard has already reported a 40% increase in attempted sea crossings from Cuba to Florida since January, with over 12,000 interdictions in 2024. Historically, energy-led economic collapses have preceded political upheaval. The 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, which triggered Cuba’s “Special Period,” saw GDP fall by 35% and food shortages leading to widespread malnutrition. The current crisis mirrors those conditions, but with a warmer climate and more fragile infrastructure.
From a climatological perspective, the energy collapse is a case study in the feedback loops of biosphere degradation. Cuba’s reliance on oil, a finite and polluting fuel, has created a brittle system. When oil supply falters, the country cannot power water pumps, causing freshwater shortages that degrade agricultural output. In 2023, Cuban agricultural production fell to its lowest level since 1998. This is not a temporary aberration: it is a preview of what happens when a nation lacks a diversified energy grid and is exposed to global supply chain shocks.
For the United Kingdom, the collapse poses risks to its Overseas Territories. The Bahamas, the Cayman Islands, and the Turks and Caicos Islands all rely on tourism from the US and Cuba and could face disruption if instability generates refugee flows or disease outbreaks. The Ministry of Defence has increased naval patrols in the Caribbean, and a Royal Fleet Auxiliary vessel is now stationed near the Windward Passage. The UK’s Chief of Defence Staff has described the situation as “a matter of weeks, not months” before a full state collapse, citing intelligence reports of food riots in Santiago de Cuba and Holguín.
Technological solutions exist to mitigate such crises. Renewable energy microgrids, such as those deployed in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, could provide distributed power that does not depend on imported oil. Cuba has solar and wind potential but lacks the capital to develop it. International organisations have offered assistance, but US sanctions limit the flow of technology. The CIA director’s visit may signal a thaw: Washington could offer temporary relief from sanctions in exchange for political reforms, though such deals are historically fragile.
The energy transition is not an abstract environmental goal. It is the infrastructure of national survival. Cuba’s collapse is a warning: any nation that fails to diversify its energy sources and build resilience to climate shocks will face the same cascade of failures. The UK monitors from a distance, but its own Caribbean territories are not immune. If energy is the lifeblood of civilisation, Cuba is experiencing a cardiac arrest. The world should watch and learn before the next patient enters the ward.
