The headlines from Hormuz are grim, but let us focus on the bottom line. A British survivor has spoken, and the cost of this missile strike is not measured solely in human tragedy. It is a capital event, a shock to the system that re-prices risk in the Strait, a choke point for global energy.
The search for the missing friend continues, but the market has already made its assessment. Insurance premiums for tankers in the region will spike. The risk premium on crude oil futures will widen.
This is the brutal arithmetic of geopolitics. The government will express concern, but the real response will be in the bond market. Gilt yields will reflect increased uncertainty.
Capital will seek safe harbours. The survivor's story is a human one, but in my world, it is a data point. A reminder that the cost of instability is borne by all of us, directly or indirectly.
The search continues, and so does the calculation.
