Germany is contemplating a temporary reactivation of coal-fired power stations to address an energy shortfall exacerbated by the phase-out of nuclear and the curtailment of Russian gas. The proposal, which has sparked fierce debate within the coalition government, would see up to 11 gigawatts of coal capacity placed on standby for the winter months. This would be a sharp departure from the country's ambitious commitment to phase out coal by 2030, a target enshrined in the coalition agreement and seen as critical to meeting European Union climate goals.
The urgency stems from a perfect storm of factors: the loss of Russian pipeline gas following the invasion of Ukraine, the closure of the last three nuclear reactors in April 2023, and a slower-than-expected rollout of renewable infrastructure. According to the German Federal Network Agency, the reserve margin for electricity generation this winter could fall below 5%, a level considered precarious for grid stability. A revival of coal, even as a bridge measure, would push Germany's emissions higher. The country's carbon dioxide output from energy already rose by 3.5% in 2023 according to the Agora Energiewende think tank, despite a 6% drop in overall power demand.
Across the North Sea, the United Kingdom is positioning itself as an alternative supplier. British wind farms generated a record 22.5 gigawatts on a gusty day in January 2023, and the country's interconnectors now allow the export of surplus clean power. The National Grid's Electricity System Operator reported that British electricity exports to Europe reached 18 terawatt-hours in 2023, up 40% from the previous year. These flows are particularly valuable during peak demand periods, when Germany faces the highest risk of blackouts.
However, the British backstop is not a panacea. Interconnector capacity between the UK and Germany is limited to 1.4 gigawatts via the NeuConnect link, which is still under construction and won't be fully operational until 2028. Emergency imports can help, but they cannot replace baseload generation from reliable sources. As Dr. Helena Vance, Science & Climate Correspondent, notes: 'Energy transfers across interconnectors are like borrowing a cup of sugar from a neighbour. They are fine for temporary shortfalls, but you cannot run your entire kitchen on borrowed sugar.'
The German debate reflects a broader tension in energy policy across Europe. Nations are simultaneously trying to decarbonise, ensure security of supply, and keep prices affordable. The three objectives form what analysts call the 'energy trilemma', and trade-offs are inevitable. For Germany, the coal revival is a bitter pill, one that acknowledges the gap between aspiration and reality. The country's renewable generation has grown, accounting for 52% of electricity in 2023, but this masks significant variability. Solar and wind output can drop to near zero during calm, overcast winter days, when demand peaks for heating and lighting.
Opponents of the coal move argue that it would damage Germany's climate credibility and could delay investments in storage and grid modernisation. The German Environmental Aid organisation has threatened legal action, citing the country's own climate law which mandates a 65% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Current trajectory puts Germany on track for a 50-55% reduction, according to the German Institute for Economic Research.
Meanwhile, UK Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho has signalled willingness to expand interconnection capacity, framing British renewables as a 'clean alternative to polluting coal'. But building new cables takes years, and financing is uncertain. The UK's own electricity system is also under strain: planned closures of gas plants and delays in new nuclear projects mean that by 2030, Britain could face its own winter supply gaps.
The situation encapsulates a painful lesson: decarbonisation is not a toggle switch but a gradual industrial transformation. Coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, remains a crutch when the weather does not cooperate. For Germany, the immediate choice is between blackouts and black smoke. But the longer-term solution, as data clearly show, lies in a diversified mix of renewables, storage, and grid integration. As one engineer put it: 'The energy transition is a marathon, not a sprint. But right now, Germany is limping and looking for a shortcut.'
