Colombia has elected a political outsider backed by former President Donald Trump, a result that reshapes the country's political landscape and opens a new chapter in Latin American geopolitics. The victor, Rodolfo Hernández, a wealthy businessman and former mayor of Bucaramanga, secured a decisive win in Sunday's runoff election, defeating leftist candidate Gustavo Petro. Hernández’s campaign, which capitalised on widespread anti-establishment sentiment, was bolstered by endorsements from Trump allies and a platform promising to combat corruption, stimulate investment, and upend the political status quo.
For the United Kingdom, the outcome presents both opportunities and uncertainties. The UK has been actively seeking to deepen trade ties with Latin America following its departure from the European Union, and Colombia, as the region's fourth-largest economy, is a strategic target. Hernández has signalled a pro-business approach, pledging to reduce corporate taxes, streamline regulations, and open the economy to foreign investment. British officials are cautiously optimistic that the new administration will be receptive to a bilateral trade agreement, building on the UK-Colombia trade continuity agreement signed in 2019.
However, analysts caution that Hernández’s inexperience and unpredictable style could complicate negotiations. His campaign was marked by erratic statements and a refusal to participate in most debates, raising questions about his capacity to manage complex economic reforms. Moreover, his reliance on Trump's backing may strain relations with the Biden administration, which has been critical of right-wing populists in the region. The UK, which often aligns with US foreign policy aims, may need to navigate these tensions carefully.
The election also underscores broader shifts in Latin America. Colombia joins a growing list of nations where voters have rejected traditional parties in favour of outsiders, a trend that has seen leftists gain ground in Chile, Peru, and Bolivia, while right-wing populists have triumphed in Brazil and Argentina. Hernández’s victory narrows the field for centrist leaders, complicating the UK’s efforts to promote stable, reform-oriented partners.
British businesses with exposure to Colombia are watching closely. UK exports to Colombia, valued at £450 million annually, are dominated by machinery, pharmaceuticals, and financial services. Hernández’s plans to expand infrastructure and energy projects could create new opportunities for British firms, particularly in renewable energy and mining. However, his campaign rhetoric has included protectionist elements, such as a pledge to prioritise Colombian goods, which may limit market access.
Human rights groups have expressed concern about Hernández’s past comments downplaying the conflict with leftist guerrillas and his opposition to parts of the 2016 peace deal. The UK, which has funded demining and reconciliation projects in Colombia, may face pressure to ensure that human rights remain central to any new partnership. The Foreign Office has issued a statement congratulating Hernández and emphasising the importance of democratic institutions and rule of law.
In the short term, the UK is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach, dispatching trade envoys to measure the new government’s intentions. A formal trade negotiation would require parliamentary approval and alignment with the UK’s broader Latin America strategy, which has prioritised post-Brexit deals with Mexico, Chile, and the Pacific Alliance. Colombia’s membership in that bloc could streamline talks, but Hernández’s unpredictability may slow progress.
For London, the calculation is clear: Colombia offers a significant commercial prize, but one that comes with political risks. As the new president prepares to take office in August, British diplomats will be balancing ambition with caution, aware that in Latin America’s volatile landscape, today’s outsider can quickly become tomorrow’s liability.