The news broke just after 2am Bogotá time. Gustavo Petro, the contentious former guerrilla turned presidential candidate, conceded defeat to conservative candidate Federico Gutiérrez. It was a surprising end to a campaign that had spooked markets and worried Whitehall. Downing Street can breathe again. The UK trade deal with Colombia, signed in 2020 and currently being renegotiated to include services, now stands on firmer ground. One senior Whitehall source told me: 'We always bet on stability. This result validates that approach.'
Petro’s platform was heavy on state intervention and redistribution. His defeat is a shot in the arm for the Colombian peso, which had been under pressure. For British exporters, particularly in pharmaceuticals and financial services, the path is now smoother. 'Gutiérrez is known as a centrist with a business-friendly agenda. He has already spoken of deepening ties with the UK,' a senior Foreign Office insider revealed.
The result also has implications for UK trade strategy more broadly. As the government looks to forge new partnerships post-Brexit, Colombia sits in a region where UK influence is growing. The UK-Colombia trade relationship is relatively modest – around £800 million a year – but it is symbolic. 'It shows that our values-based approach to trade, prioritising stability and rule of law, can yield results,' said a minister who asked not to be named.
Opposition MPs on the left will be disappointed. Labour had been cautiously watching Petro, seeing his campaign as part of a global rebalancing. But the Conservative party will celebrate the vindication of their stance. 'We want trade with partners who play by the rules. Petro’s vision did not match that,' added the same source.
Gutiérrez, a former mayor of Medellín, is likely to pursue a mix of free-market policies and moderate social spending. The UK are now expected to accelerate talks on a digital trade chapter. The City of London is particularly keen. 'Colombia is a growing fintech hub. There is appetite on both sides to move quickly,' a trade official said.
For now, the immediate challenge for Gutiérrez is to unite a divided country. But for the UK, the result is a win. As one lobbyist put it: 'This is a Brexit dividend in the world of trade. We can choose our partners. And we chose well.' The champagne is on ice in the Department for International Trade.
The Colombia result is not a seismic shift for UK trade. But it is a significant piece of good news for a government that has faced criticism over its post-Brexit deals, especially the much-vaunted Australia agreement. The Colombia example suggests patience pays off.
Downing Street will be watching closely as Gutiérrez assembles his cabinet. The key figure will be his finance minister. 'We want to see a technocrat, not a ideologue,' the Whitehall source concluded. 'The signals so far are encouraging.'
Petro’s concession speech was gracious, but his future is uncertain. For the UK, however, the future in Colombia looks bright.
