Colombia’s presidential runoff on Sunday sets Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla and leftist senator, against Rodolfo Hernández, a populist businessman who has courted Trump supporters and is backed by the country’s conservative elite. The result will shape trade, migration, and commodities prices for the UK, where a Labour government or a Conservative one must grapple with the fallout.
Petro, 62, proposes a shift away from fossil fuels, higher taxes on the wealthy, and a renegotiation of free trade deals. That alarms UK importers of Colombian coal and coffee, two of Britain’s top purchases from the South American nation. Colombia is the UK’s sixth-largest coal supplier, accounting for 3.1 million tonnes in 2021, according to the Department for Business. A Petro presidency could mean higher export duties or a slowdown in licensing for new mines, raising costs for UK steelmakers and energy firms.
Hernández, 77, a former mayor of Bucaramanga, promises to cut red tape, lower taxes, and boost foreign investment. He has praised Donald Trump and, like the former US president, rails against the ‘deep state’. His campaign has focused on corruption and law and order, tapping into public anger over rising inequality and crime. A Hernández win would reassure UK investors in Colombia’s oil and gas sector, including BP and Shell, but his ambiguous stance on peace deals with leftist rebels could deter those betting on stability.
Migration is another key concern. Some 1.8 million Venezuelan refugees have crossed into Colombia, and the UK has given aid to support them. Both candidates have vowed to tighten borders, but Petro’s more open refugee policy might encourage further Venezuelan arrivals, potentially prompting more to head north towards the UK. Conversely, Hernández’s tough line could slow the flow.
For UK exporters, the outcome matters. Colombia is the UK’s third-largest export market in Latin America, buying machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals worth £1.7 billion in 2021. A Hernández victory would likely align with UK foreign policy, easing a free trade deal that London has pursued since Brexit. But Petro’s protectionist instincts could hamper that, potentially pushing Britain to seek closer ties with other Andean nations like Peru and Chile.
The UK has already brokered a continuity trade agreement with Colombia and its Andean neighbours, keeping tariffs low on goods from Scotch whisky to auto parts. However, any disruption to Colombia’s stability could hit UK carmakers, who rely on Colombian steel parts, and threaten Biscuits and chocolate makers who source cocoa and sugar from the country.
In the North, where I grew up among factory workers and small farmers, trade deals are not abstract. The closure of coal mines in the 1980s and the decline of steel jobs left scars. Now, Colombia’s election could bring back some of that uncertainty. Steelworkers in Sheffield and coal miners in Yorkshire have seen their industries shrivel, but imported Colombian coal still powers some plants and steel furnaces. A shift in Colombian policy could mean higher costs or lost orders.
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party has criticised the government’s post-Brexit trade strategy for lacking ambition in Latin America. A Petro win could be a test: would a Labour government cosy up to a leftist ally or stress human rights concerns? For the Conservatives, a Hernández victory would be a welcome win for conservative values, but pressure would mount to ensure any deal benefits British workers’ wages and conditions.
Both candidates have shunned traditional alliances. Petro has spoken of forming a ‘new left’ that cuts ties with Cuba and Venezuela. Hernández, a former Liberal, now runs as an independent, tapping into a populist wave similar to that which swept France’s Marine Le Pen and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. The UK must prepare for either outcome, but the stakes are highest for those in regions where global trade and local jobs collide.
The runoff falls on Sunday 19 June. Polls show a tight race, with Petro holding a narrow lead but Hernández closing. Whether it is a leftist or a Trump ally, the implications for British high streets, factories, and refineries will be felt long after the votes are counted.
