Colombia faces a decisive presidential run-off on Sunday, with a leftist former guerrilla squaring off against a conservative ally of Donald Trump. The outcome will likely reshape alliances in Latin America, a region already grappling with economic fragility and climate vulnerability. Britain’s Foreign Office has issued a stark warning about the risks of political instability, particularly given Colombia’s role as a key partner in tackling deforestation and drug trafficking.
Gustavo Petro, a former M-19 rebel and now a senator, leads the polls with a promise to tackle inequality and shift away from fossil fuels. His opponent, Iván Duque, a protégé of former President Álvaro Uribe and a Trump enthusiast, champions free-market policies and a tough stance on crime. The election is a microcosm of a broader global struggle between populist nationalism and progressive reform.
Data from the International Energy Agency shows Colombia’s oil exports account for 40% of its foreign revenue. Under Duque, extraction has accelerated. Petro proposes a managed energy transition, reducing dependence on hydrocarbons while investing in renewable sources such as solar and wind. The Colombian peso has already weakened on uncertainty around potential policy shifts.
Britain’s interest is not merely diplomatic. The UK is a major investor in Colombia’s mining sector, with companies like Glencore and Anglo American operating coal mines. A Petro victory could mean higher royalties and slower approvals. However, a Duque administration would likely maintain the status quo, but at the cost of accelerating deforestation in the Amazon, a region crucial for global carbon sequestration.
The Amazon rainforest, which stretches across Colombia, is a carbon sink that absorbs 5% of global CO2 emissions. Since the 2016 peace deal with the FARC, deforestation has surged by 80% as illegal mining and land grabbing expand. NASA satellite imagery shows a clear correlation between policy direction and forest cover loss. Under Duque, environmental protections have been weakened. In contrast, Petro has pledged to enforce existing laws and create a ministry of peace and environmental justice.
Climate models from the Met Office indicate that continued deforestation in Colombia could reduce rainfall across the continent, affecting agriculture from Brazil to Argentina. This is not a distant threat. Right now, the Amazon is emitting more carbon than it absorbs for the first time in millennia. The election is a binary choice between a path of continued extraction and a shift toward sustainability.
Britain’s warning is calibrated. The Foreign Office statement notes that political uncertainty in Colombia could destabilise the region, given its proximity to political crises in Venezuela and Peru. The UK has a quiet but significant presence in Bogotá, providing training to intelligence services and funding reforestation projects. A change in leadership could recalibrate these alliances.
The economic data is stark. Colombia’s GDP grew at an average of 2.5% over the past decade, below the Latin American average. Income inequality remains among the highest in the world, with a Gini coefficient of 0.51. Meanwhile, drug-related violence has intensified in rural areas. The election is a choice between two diagnoses of the problem. Duque’s law-and-order approach has not reduced coca cultivation; it has shifted it to more remote areas, displacing communities and accelerating forest loss.
The scientific consensus is clear: human activity is driving biosphere collapse, and policy decisions in resource-rich nations like Colombia have outsized effects. The energy transition cannot happen without political will. Sunday’s vote will determine whether Colombia resists change or embraces hybrid solutions.
Whichever path is chosen, the world will be watching. The outcome may be messy; the science is not. The physical reality of our planet demands immediate and structural transformation. Britain’s warning is a reflection of that urgency, even if the language is diplomatic. Colombia’s run-off is not just about politics. It is about the future of the Amazon, the stability of commodity markets, and our collective ability to avoid the worst of climate change. That is what is at stake.
