Colombia goes to the polls. A leftist firebrand versus a pro-Trump hardliner. The UK establishment is sweating. Instability in a key regional partner spells trouble. Trade. Security. Drugs. All at stake.
Private briefings from the Foreign Office show real concern. A win for Gustavo Petro would be a first for Colombia. A former guerrilla. He promises radical change. Land reform. Rejection of the neoliberal consensus. That rattles the City. British firms have billions in mining and oil interests there.
His rival, Rodolfo Hernández. A populist outsider. He flirts with the US right. TikTok campaign. Vows to clean up corruption. But his temperament is volatile. Diplomats call him 'unpredictable'.
The UK has stayed publicly neutral. But the whispers tell a different story. Officials fear a Petro victory could shift Colombia closer to Venezuela and Cuba. The Home Office is worried about a new wave of drug trafficking. The Ministry of Defence sees a risk to regional stability.
Meanwhile, the US is watching too. Biden team behind the scenes prefers Hernández. But they won't say it. Trump allies see Hernández as one of their own. If he wins, it's a boost for the Maga movement.
The real fear in Whitehall is a disputed result. Both camps cry foul. Street protests. The UK and US would be forced to pick sides. No good options There.
This is a high-stakes game. The Colombian peso is already volatile. The British ambassador in Bogotá is burning the midnight oil. Expect carefully worded statements. No one wants to be caught on the wrong side of history.
One thing is certain. Whatever happens, the UK's influence in Latin America is waning. Post-Brexit, we are desperate for trade deals. A hostile Colombia would be a blow.
The lobby is buzzing. Senior MPs are being briefed. Quietly. They know this matters more than the government lets on. Watch this space.
