The Colombia election has gone to a second round. A leftist against a Trump fan. British money is watching nervously.
Both candidates have big plans for the economy. One wants to nationalise. The other wants to deregulate.
UK firms have billions in play. Oil, mining, infrastructure. All at risk.
The lobby is buzzing. Whitehall sources say they are 'monitoring closely'. Translation: They are terrified.
The leftist, Gustavo Petro, leads in the polls. He promises to renegotiate contracts. A nightmare for pension funds.
The other, Rodolfo Hernández, is a populist. He admires Trump. Talks tough on corruption.
But his policies are vague. British investors prefer the devil they know. That is neither.
The first round was a shock. The establishment collapsed. It means uncertainty.
The City hates uncertainty. A source in the Colombia desk told me: 'We are advising clients to hedge.' That is code for panic.
The Conservative Party has friends in Bogotá. But they are out of power. Keir Starmer would be no different.
Labour has ties to Petro's movement. The party is staying quiet. No one wants to pick a side.
Too risky. The real game is in the numbers. Petro has a 20-point lead.
But Hernández is closing. The campaign is dirty. Leaks, smears, fake news.
It feels familiar. The UK's stake is not just money. It is influence.
We have a free trade deal pending. That is on ice until the result. If Petro wins, expect a renegotiation.
If Hernández wins, expect chaos. Either way, British business loses. The cabinet is split.
Trade secretary wants to engage. Foreign office wants to wait. The PM is not interested.
He has his own problems. The backbench are restless. They see this as a test.
If the left wins in Colombia, it emboldens the UK left. That is the real fear. Watch the polls.
They will move. Fast. The next few weeks are critical.
I am told a delegation is leaving soon. Business leaders, officials. They want to hedge their bets.
But the game is already set. Colombia will choose its path. British investments will follow.
Or they will walk. Either way, it is a gamble. And in politics, gambles rarely pay off.
